July 01, 2009
NYC Letter: The Obama Economy, Part II
Day 162 of CHOPE
Christina Romer,I still hold out hope it will be a V-shaped recovery. It might not be the most likely scenario but it is not as unlikely as many people think.
Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers,
CHOPE-ing against hope
INTERVIEW
June 28, 2009 (FT)
The V recovery graphs as a decline that quickly rebounds once it hits bottom. The American economy is believed to have bottomed March 6, some three months ago.
Ms. Romer here clings to the same misplaced CHOPE that misinformed her earlier forecast of the magic of stimulus spending. What is the likelihood of Ms. Romer's fabulous V recovery? [Pause.] With few major indicators showing sustained rebounds, not very likely at all.
FORGET THE V-SHAPED RECOVERY: EXPERTS
May 15, 2009 (CNBC)
V-SHAPED RECOVERY IS OVERLY OPTIMISTIC
May 18, 2009 (CNBC)
V-SHAPED RECOVERY OUTLOOK IS IN VAIN
First Pacific Advisors: The Bulk Of The Economy's
Credit Problems Are Still To Come.
June 3, 2009 (Barron's)
KRUGMAN SAYS NO SIGNS
OF ‘V-SHAPED’ ECONOMIC RECOVERY
June 5, 2009 (Bloomberg) - Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the world’s economy is showing "not a hint" of a "V-shaped" recovery marked by a swift decline and revival.The economy is "stabilizing, not recovering," Krugman, an economics professor at Princeton University in New Jersey, said today at a conference in Dublin. Mr. Krugman:
Things are getting worse more slowly.... Service industries in the U.S. shrank at a slower pace in May while job losses mounted, indicating that any economic recovery will be slow to develop. Mr. Krugman:
The euro zone, like the United States, I fear, could be facing kind of a lost decade.
RECOVERY REALITY CHECK: NOT SO FAST...
Don't Cheer Fewer Job Losses
NEW YORK June 5, 2009 (CNNMoney.com) - The May jobs report, which showed the lowest level of cuts since September, sent stocks slightly higher Friday on more hopes that the economy may soon be on the upswing.... Let's put things in perspective. Employers still cut 345,000 jobs last month.
In case that didn't sink in, I'll repeat it. Employers still cut 345,000 jobs last month. That's a big number. But in some of the media's coverage of the jobs report, journalists had the unmitigated gall to say that only 345,000 jobs were lost.
Only? It is downright insulting to the average American to use such a modifier.
Yes, the job market is a lagging indicator. That means it may be the last part of the economy to recover.
But with unemployment now at a 26-year high, it's hard to imagine how there can be a robust rebound until companies actually feel comfortable to start hiring again.
US: ISM* MANUFACTURING − NO "V" SHAPED RECOVERY
July 1, 2009 (FXstreet.com)
Ms. Romer tries to wish results into being, dutifully peddling Team Barry's cheery CHOPE. We will be lucky if this recession graphs as a U, where the economy trolls along the bottom before sloping up. [Pause] Or Team Barry may just spend-and-tax us into an L recovery with the bottom lingering for years.
CHOPE.
Cheery forecasts. Dreary results.
------------------------------------
* Institute for Supply Management
June 30, 2009
NYC Letter: The Obama Economy, Part I
Day 161 of CHOPE
Q: When should we judge the stimulus package -- whether it's working or not?
Well, I think we should judge it, ah, we should begin to judge it now, ah...
Q: To judge it now?
Absolutely!
Robert Gibbs,
WH spokesperson, officially retiring the GWB economy
WASHINGTON June 29, 2009 (MSNBC/YouTube)
Finally! It's here. The Obama economy. [We briefly jubilate.] OK. Let's start judging.
JUNE FEDERAL RECEIPTS: THE DIVE CONTINUES,
AS DOES MEDIA NEAR SILENCE
June 30, 2009 (bizzyblog.com) - As we near the end of June, which is supposed to be one of the four biggest months for federal tax collections (January, April, and September are the others), it is clear that the serious receipts shortfalls are not only continuing, but have caused the March 20 projections of the administration and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) outdated.
Federal tax receipts were down 34% this April compared to a year ago.
[A]s we approach the end of the month, June 2009 receipts from economic activity are down 25% from last year. It’s clear from last year’s results that it would be unreasonable to expect a high level of receipts from other than withholdings in the final two days of this year.
Detailed analysis worth the full read.
GLOOMY U.S. CONSUMERS CLIP HOUSING RECOVERY HOPES
WASHINGTON June 30, 2009 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence took an unexpectedly steep slide in June, figures released on Tuesday showed, suggesting the 18-month-long recession had yet to loosen its grip on the economy.... Major stock market indexes fell after the Conference Board's consumer confidence index showed households felt gloomier about their current situation and less optimistic about what the coming months might bring.
HOUSING IN PERIL AS OBAMA FAILS TO GET BREAKTHROUGH
June 29, 2009 (Bloomberg) - Four months after President Barack Obama pledged $275 billion to shore up home sales, the engine that powered every U.S. recovery since 1960 is stalled. Bankers’ reluctance to finance buyers who won’t live in properties is one barrier to a turnaround. Stricter qualifying rules and a rise in the cost of residential loans to 5.42 percent have impeded new mortgage lending, which is at a 13-year low. An inventory of 2.1 million unoccupied houses on the market, created by the fastest foreclosure pace in history, may be a drag on a revival.The $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit in the U.S. economic stimulus package and a government program to subsidize some mortgage payments have had little effect, according to Eric Belsky, executive director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
... Existing U.S. home sales in May rose 2.4 percent to an annual rate of 4.77 million, lower than forecast, and the median price was down 16.8 percent from the same month in 2008, according to the Chicago-based National Realtors Association.
There’s little chance the turnover will increase enough this year to end the housing recession, said Andres Carbacho- Burgos, an economist with Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
Housing typically leads American recoveries.
RECORD UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN EIGHT STATES
June 19, 2009 (calculatedriskblog.com) - From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryMichigan again reported the highest jobless rate, 14.1 percent in May. The states with the next highest rates were Oregon, 12.4 percent; Rhode Island and South Carolina, 12.1 percent each; California, 11.5 percent; Nevada, 11.3 percent; and North Carolina, 11.1 percent. Six additional states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rates of at least 10.0 percent. The California, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, and South Carolina rates were the highest on record for those states. Florida, at 10.2 percent, and Georgia, at 9.7 percent, also posted series highs.
Many news media skip the lack of improvement and dress up Mr. Obama's economy with upbeat headlines declaring declines less than the running forecasts. But, gentle skimmer, the running forecasts long ago surpassed the working forecasts used to sell the stimulus.
WASHINGTON June 30, 2009 (NYT) - In the weeks just before President Obama took office, his economic advisers made a mistake. They got a little carried away with hope.To make the case for a big stimulus package, they released their economic forecast for the next few years. Without the stimulus, they saw the unemployment rate — then 7.2 percent — rising above 8 percent in 2009 and peaking at 9 percent next year. With the stimulus, the advisers said, unemployment would probably peak at 8 percent late this year.
We now know that this forecast was terribly optimistic. The jobless rate has already reached 9.4 percent. On Thursday, the Labor Department will announce the latest number, for June, and forecasters are expecting it to rise further. In concrete terms, the difference between the situation that the Obama advisers predicted and the one that has come to pass is about 2.5 million jobs.
... There are two possible explanations that the administration was so wrong. ... The first explanation is that the economy has deteriorated because the stimulus package failed. Some critics say that stimulus just doesn’t work, while others argue that this particular package was too small or too badly constructed to make a difference. ... The second answer is that the economy has deteriorated in spite of the stimulus.
... It’s not fair to expect Mr. Obama’s economists to be clairvoyant. But they did make one avoidable mistake that led directly to their overoptimism. They relied on the same forecasting models that had completely failed to see the crisis coming.
Amidst all the bad news, not everyone is cheerless.
June 28, 2009 (FT) - The US economy will feel a substantial boost from the Obama administration’s emergency spending package over the next few months, says Christina Romer, a senior White House official, who has warned against tightening monetary and fiscal policy before recovery is well established.
Not to put too fine a point on this, but we expected something more from $787B of "emergency" spending than a 3-6 or 9-month downstream boost. Ms. Romer's lagging boost just happens to coincide with consensus opinion on a non-stimulus recovery. [Pause.] Damnedest thing.
Ms Romer, chairman of the US president’s council of economic advisers, told the Financial Times in an interview she was “more optimistic” that the economy was close to stabilisation.Ms Romer said stimulus spending was “going to ramp up strongly through the summer and the fall”.
Oh, good. Another "ramp-up" promise from Team Barry.
“We always knew we were not going to get all that much fiscal impact during the first five to six months. The big impact starts to hit from about now onwards,” she said.
Apparently Ms. Romer was only fooling back in January when she published the administration's stimulus expectations captured in the chart below.
FIGURE 1 (A)
[Graphic Source: Job Impact Of The American Recovery
And Reinvestment Plan, January 9, 2009]
That didn't pan out. Not only did Team Barry completely guess wrong on the stimulus, they spectacularly guessed wrong on the recession itself.
FIGURE 1 (B)
Ms. Romer:I still hold out hope it will be a V-shaped recovery. It might not be the most likely scenario but it is not as unlikely as many people think.
For Team Barry CHOPE springs eternal.
CHOPE.
The Obama economy. Not what you were told. Not what you were sold.
June 28, 2009
NYC Letter: Political Science 101
Day 159 of CHOPE
Transparency promotes accountability and provides information for citizens about what their Government is doing. Information maintained by the Federal Government is a national asset. My Administration will take appropriate action, consistent with law and policy, to disclose information rapidly in forms that the public can readily find and use.
Mr. Obama,
bragging on his cellophane administration
MEMORANDUM FOR THE HEADS
OF EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES
WASHINGTON January 21, 2009 (White House)
Here is the administration you can see right through in practice.
EPA MAY HAVE SUPPRESSED REPORT
SKEPTICAL OF GLOBAL WARMING
June 26, 2009 (CBS News) - Less than two weeks before the agency formally submitted its pro-regulation recommendation to the White House, an EPA center director quashed a 98-page report* that warned against making hasty "decisions based on a scientific hypothesis that does not appear to explain most of the available data."The EPA official, Al McGartland, said in an e-mail message to a staff researcher on March 17:
The administrator and the administration has decided to move forward... and your comments do not help the legal or policy case for this decision.
So Team Barry after soliciting an endangerment finding and not getting it, simply does without the finding.
TRANSPARENCY CONSISTENT WITH A POLICY OF PHONY SCIENCE
The Expected Findings Are The Findings To Be Found
The e-mail correspondence raises questions about political interference in what was supposed to be an independent review process** inside a federal agency -- and echoes criticisms of the EPA under the Bush administration, which was accused of suppressing a pro-climate change document.Alan Carlin, the primary author of the 98-page EPA report, told CBSNews.com in a telephone interview on Friday that his boss, McGartland, was being pressured himself. Mr. Carlin:
It was his view that he either lost his job or he got me working on something else. That was obviously coming from higher levels.E-mail messages released this week show that Carlin was ordered not to "have any direct communication" with anyone outside his small group at EPA on the topic of climate change, and was informed that his report would not be shared with the agency group working on the topic.
Well, the EPA's protestations notwithstanding, there seems to be little "may have" to the above headline.
The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) comments:
CEI is submitting a set of four EPA emails, dated March 12-17, 2009, which indicate that a significant internal critique of EPA’s position on Endangerment was essentially put under wraps and concealed. The study was barred from being circulated within EPA, it was never disclosed to the public, and it was not placed in the docket of this proceeding. The emails further show that the study was treated in this manner not because of any problem with its quality, but for political reasons.
From the suppressed report's preface (p.4):
We have become increasingly concerned that EPA and many other agencies and countries have paid too little attention to the science of global warming. EPA and others have tended to accept findings reached by outside groups, particularly the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] and the CCSP [Climate Change Science Program],** as being correct without a careful and critical examination of their conclusions and documentation.… We do not maintain that we or anyone else have all the answers needed… Our conclusions do represent the best science in the sense of most closely corresponding to the available observations that we currently know of, however, and are sufficiently at variance with those of the IPCC, CCSP, and the Draft TSD [Technical Support Document] that we believe they support our increasing concern that EPA has not critically reviewed the findings by these other groups.
As discussed in these comments we believe our concerns and reservations are sufficiently important to warrant a serious review of the science by EPA before any attempt is made to reach conclusions on the subject. … The Draft TSD suggests to us that we do not yet have that capability or that we have not used what we have.
The report only argues to get the science right before proceeding. It is policy neutral where the EPA was looking for a pro-policy finding.
It is common among religions to suppress heresies. And the hierophants of global warming do not want their acolytes disturbed by actual science or critical inquiry. Global warmists cannot bear challenges to orthodoxy. [Pause.] The science be damned.
[Hat tips: NewsBusters, Gateway Pundit]
This is what transparent scientific debate refereed by a community organizer looks like.
CHOPE.
Nothing to see. Move along.
------------------------------------
* The report has the windy title, Proposed NCEE (National Center for Environmental Economics) Comments On Draft Technical Support Document For Endangerment Analysis For Greenhouse Gas Emissions Under The Clean Air Act.
** More examples of "independent review processes" under Mr. Obama here and here and here.
*** Recently reinvented as the Global Change Research Program (USGCRP).
June 27, 2009
NYC Letter: Ceci n'est pas une taxe
Day 158 of CHOPE
George H. W. Bush,Read my lips: no new taxes.
then-candidate for the presidency, making the promise
that won him his first term and lost him his second term
ACCEPTANCE SPEECH
REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION
NEW ORLEANS August 18, 1988 (presidency.ucsb.edu)
But let me perfectly clear...if your family earns less than $250,000 a year, you will not see your taxes increased a single dime.
I repeat: not one single dime.
Mr. Obama,
repeating the campaign promise
that will lose him his second term
ADDRESS TO JOINT SESSION OF CONGRESS
WASHINGTON February 24th, 2009 (White House)
CECI N'EST PAS UNE TAXE
It's A Jobs Bill! Fooled Us.
[With apologies to René Magritte]
Under my plan of a cap-and-trade system electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket. Businesses would have to retrofit their operations. That will cost money. They will pass that cost onto consumers.
Mr. Obama,
then-candidate for the presidency,
being candid about sticking it to the American consumer
INTERVIEW
January 17, 2008 (SFG)
John Dingell (D-MI, 15th),Nobody, nobody in this country realizes that cap-and-trade is a tax. And it's a great big one.
chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee,
calling a tax a tax
WASHINGTON April 24, 2009 (YouTube/C-Span)
Warren Buffett,I think if you get into the way [the cap-and-trade bill] was written, it's a huge tax and there's no sense calling it anything else. I mean, it is a tax. And it's a fairly regressive tax. If we buy permits, essentially, at our utilities, that goes right into the bills of the utility customers and an awful lot of people in Iowa, in Oregon, and Utah, and places where we are, very poor people are going to pay a lot more money for electricity.
billionaire investor and supporter of
and sometime advisor to Mr. Obama,
calling a tax a tax
NEW YORK June 24, 2009 (CNBC)
In Obamaland, if you don't call a tax a tax, it's not a tax.
PRESIDENT OBAMA ON ENERGY BILL:
"MAKE NO MISTAKE, THIS IS A JOBS BILL"
WASHINGTON June 25, 2009 (ABC News) - Standing in the Rose Garden this afternoon, President Obama called for the House of Representatives to pass the energy bill written by Reps. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., and Ed Markey, D-Mass., calling Friday's roll call a "vote of historic proportions" that would likely be close because of "misinformation that's out there that suggests there is somehow a contradiction between investing in clean energy and our economic growth.""Make no mistake, this is a jobs bill," Mr. Obama said, arguing that the bill would "create incentives to spark a clean energy economy."
The government will collect fees for emissions permits forcing up your electric bill. [Pause.] It's a tax. [Hard pause.] And more likely it's a jobs killer.
CHOPE.
Tax rich. Energy poor. And no jobs.
June 25, 2009
NYC Letter: The Right Place A Shambles
Day 156 of CHOPE
Warren Buffett,He's not only a leader, but he can lead us to the right place.
billionaire investor and supporter of
and sometime advisor* to Mr. Obama,
revealing where Mr. Obama will lead us
OMAHA August 16, 2007 (Chicago Tribune)
[Fast forward.] Here we -- and Mr. Buffett -- are.
WARREN BUFFETT TO CNBC:
U.S. ECONOMY IN "SHAMBLES",
NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY YET
June 24, 2009 (CNBC) - While the economy is a "shambles" and likely to stay that way for some time, he remains optimistic there will eventually be a recovery over a period of years.
"Over a period of years"? That's not optimism. That's running out the clock for Mr. Obama.
CNBC: The last time we sat down to talk ... you told us that you think we're in an economic war right now. How much progress do you think we've made in that war?BUFFETT: Well, it's been pretty flat. I get figures on 70-odd businesses, a lot of them daily. Everything that I see about the economy is that we've had no bounce. The financial system was really where the crisis was last September and October, and that's been surmounted and that's enormously important. But in terms of the economy coming back, it takes a while. There were a lot of excesses to be wrung out and that process is still underway and it looks to me like it will be underway for quite a while. In the (Berkshire Hathaway) annual report I said the economy would be in a shambles this year and probably well beyond. I'm afraid that's true.
Hhmmm. This doesn't seem to be the right place at all.
Mr. Buffett the dilettante king-maker has been disabused by Mr. Buffett the professional investor.
WARREN BUFFETT: "NOBODY KNOWS"
IF GOV'T FIXES WILL WORK
January 22, 2009 (USN&WR)
VAUNTED OBAMA MESSAGE MACHINE IS OFF-KEY
WASHINGTON March 10, 2009 (Reuters) - When billionaire investor Warren Buffett says President Barack Obama's economic message is muddled and undermining public confidence, it's worth listening.Halfway through his first 100 days in office, ace communicator Obama has struggled to find the right tone in talking about the economy, twinning bleak warnings with optimism about the future.
... Buffett, an informal Obama adviser considered a financial seer on Wall Street, told CNBC on Monday the message has to be "very, very clear as to what government will be doing." Mr. Buffett:
And I think we've had, and it's the nature of the political process somewhat, but we've had muddled messages [and this and this and this and this this and this, to link but a heptad] and the American public does not know. They feel they don't know what's going on, and their reaction then is to absolutely pull back.
CHOPE.
Led. Pwned.
------------------------------------
* Here is an example of Mr. Buffet's priceless advice. Mr. Obama:
If you talk to Warren, he'll tell you his preference is not to meddle in the economy at all—let the market work, however way it's going to work, and then just tax the heck out of people at the end and just redistribute it.
June 22, 2009
NYC Letter: Robust Political Debate IV
Day 153 of CHOPE
Mr. Obama,To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist. (Applause.)
delivering applause line to those clinging to power
through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent
INAUGURAL ADDRESS
WASHINGTON January 21, 2009 (White House)
True to his word.
EXTENDING A HOT DOG TO THE CLENCHED FIST OF IRAN
Would You Like Freedom Fries With Your Dog?
[Picture source: AFP]
US SAYS HOT DOG DIPLOMACY STILL ON WITH IRAN
WASHINGTON June 22, 2009 (AFP) — The United States said Monday its invitations were still standing for Iranian diplomats to attend July 4 celebrations at US embassies despite the crackdown on opposition supporters.President Barack Obama's administration said earlier this month it would invite Iran to US embassy barbecues for the national holiday for the first time since the two nations severed relations following the 1979 Islamic revolution. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly:
There's no thought to rescinding the invitations to Iranian diplomats.We have made a strategic decision to engage on a number of fronts with Iran. We tried many years of isolation, and we're pursuing a different path now.
But he said it was not clear if Iranian diplomats had accepted the invitations.
Legitimacy isn't the issue. Legitimizing is the issue.
CHOPE.
This Fourth of July: American ideals out, doomed-to-fail make-nice in.
June 19, 2009
NYC Letter: The Taxman Cometh
Day 150 of CHOPE
In order to save our children from a future of debt, we will also end the tax breaks for the wealthiest 2% of Americans. But let me perfectly clear, because I know you’ll hear the same old claims that rolling back these tax breaks means a massive tax increase on the American people: if your family earns less than $250,000 a year, you will not see your taxes increased a single dime.
I repeat: not one single dime.
In fact, the recovery plan provides a tax cut – that’s right, a tax cut – for 95% of working families. And these checks are on the way.
Mr. Obama,
being perfectly clear as he prepares
to cripple future generations with debt
ADDRESS TO JOINT SESSION OF CONGRESS
WASHINGTON February 24th, 2009 (White House)
Here is the backend of this recent story.
[Mr. Obama] left open the possibility he would have to raise taxes on most Americans to decrease the deficit if growth were too weak. He also indicated he might tax the most-expensive employer-provided benefits to help pay for his health-care revamp. Both would reverse pledges he made during the campaign. Mr. Obama:If we are growing at a robust rate, then we can pay for the government that we need without having to raise taxes. If we’ve got anemic growth, if we don’t have a strategy for recovery without bubbles, which is essentially what we’ve had over the last couple of recovery cycles, then we’re going to continue to have problems.The president has repeatedly said he would keep his presidential campaign pledge to cut taxes for 95 percent of working Americans while rolling back tax breaks for households making more than $250,000 a year.
During the campaign, Obama opposed taxing employer-provided health-care benefits, a proposal gaining traction among Senate Democrats to pay for a $1 trillion health-care plan.*
He said he preferred other means** of funding the legislation, including reducing itemized deductions for the wealthiest Americans and focusing on cutting health-care costs.
The classic Democratic approach to goverance is simply to spend. The follow-on is to increase taxes. They have been doing this for decades. This is the extent of Mr. Obama's CHOPE. Spend and tax. That's it. Beyond these Democratic remedies, Mr. Obama is out of ideas.
CHOPE.
Outsized spending. Record Unemployment. Time to tax the remaining life from the economy.
------------------------------------
* Or $4 trillion. Not to worry, it's only money.
** Here's one that doesn't get much press.
June 18, 2009
NYC Letter: The Mettle To Meddle
Day 149 of CHOPE
It is stupidity to hold talks without any change in US attitude.
Mehdi Kalhor,
Iranian Vice President for Media Affairs,
being candid about dreamy diplomacy
October 13, 2008 (americanthinker.com/INA)
Now, it's not productive, given the history of U.S.-Iranian relations, to be seen as meddling -- the U.S. President meddling in Iranian elections.
Mr. Obama,
not meddling with Iran
PRESS AVAILABILITY
WASHINGTON June 16, 2009 (White House)
IRAN BLAMES US FOR
'INTOLERABLE' MEDDLING
ISTANBUL June 17, 2009 (CSM)
Tea party is off. [Pause.] May as well meddle.
FIVE WAYS OBAMA COULD PROMOTE FREEDOM IN IRAN
OP-ED June 18, 2009 (WSJ) - The reform movement in Iran has clearly hit a new level, but the future is uncertain. The key issue is whether spontaneous protests crystallize into sustained dissent that involves the middle class. There are no cracks yet in the Iranian government's domestic security forces -- a common criterion for successful, bottom-up challenges to totalitarian regimes. But the Obama administration can take steps right now and in the months ahead to open a "second channel" to Iran -- this one to its people directly -- and improve the chances of real change
- Mr. Obama should contact Mr. Mousavi to signal his interest in the situation and Mr. Mousavi's security.
- Mr. Obama should deliver another taped message to the Iranian people. Only this time he should acknowledge the fundamental reality that the regime lacks the consent of its people to govern, which therefore necessitates a channel to the "other Iran".
The 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine is a model. In that case the West joined Ukrainians in refusing to accept the results of a stolen election. This combined effort helped to force a final run-off vote that reflected the people's will. In Iran, this would mean not only redoing elections but also allowing a full field of candidates to run. As with Ukraine and the Soviet Union before, Mr. Obama could at least make it clear that the U.S. will separate the issues of engagement and legitimacy. Our engagement of the Soviet Union in arms-control talks did not prevent us from successfully pressing human-rights issues and seeking an alternative political structure. So it can be with Iran. Engagement without an effort to talk to the "other Iran" would not only be a travesty but tactically foolish as well.
- The president should direct U.S. ambassadors in Europe and the Gulf to meet with local Iranian anti-regime expatriates.
- Additional funding should be provided immediately for Radio Farda, an effective Persian-language radio, Internet and satellite property of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
- The administration should take steps to give Iranian reformers and dissidents a level playing field with the regime in the battle of ideas. Just as providing photocopiers and fax machines helped Solidarity dissidents in communist Poland in the 1980s, today's reformers need access to the Web and other means of communication.
CHOPE.
Sweet talk. Tippy-toe. Have a nice day.
June 17, 2009
NYC Letter: Trust Team Barry, Part VIII
Day 148 of CHOPE
OBAMA SEES 10% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
June 17 (Bloomberg) - The jobless rate will continue to climb from its current 25-year high of 9.4 percent as employers are slow to take on new workers, the president said. “Jobs are a lagging indicator,” he said, while adding that he didn’t have “a crystal ball” to predict when unemployment will start to decline.
In January then-president-elect Obama asked Christina Romer, his designated chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and Jared Bernstein, Mr. Biden's Chief Economist and Economic Policy Adviser, to gaze into the CEA "crystal ball" and forecast unemployment. Ms. Romer and Mr. Bernstein dutifully worked up a white paper that argued under Mr. Obama's stimulus unemployment would peak at 8% then trend down to 7% in 4Q10. Without Mr. Obama's stimulus, unemployment would skyrocket to 8.8%. They even thought to provide us a chart (p.5) so there would be no mistaking Team Barry's grasp of the situation and the urgent necessity for Mr. Obama's magic stimulus.
FIGURE 1 (A)
[Graphic Source: Job Impact Of The American Recovery
And Reinvestment Plan, January 9, 2009]
Mr. Obama got his stimulus as he wanted and three months later unemployment is 9.4%, when, if you believed Team Barry, it should be under 8%. In fact unemployment is .6% higher than Team Barry predicted it would be without the stimulus.
FIGURE 1 (B)
This past Sunday on Meet The Press, Joe "Hi-Q" Biden explained. We quote the extensive exchange because we believe it is destined to become a textbook study of the thematic lie. Our comments are intercalated and bracketed in [red].
MR. GREGORY: You are in charge of monitoring the stimulus.VICE PRES. BIDEN: That's right.
MR. GREGORY: Eight hundred billion dollar stimulus. A hundred days after it was signed, the president said 150,000 jobs had been created or saved.* Can you explain where that number comes from?
VICE PRES. BIDEN: Sure. Yes, look, there's an econometric model that, that economists have been using for decades to correlate the economic circumstances of the nation with the creation of jobs. It is a model known as question, it's a model the Council of Economic Advisers have used to come up with that 150,000 jobs.
[Only last week complex job formularies were above Mr. Biden's "paygrade". Mr. Biden:
I’m sorry I’m not an economist. My background is foreign policy and the constitution. ... I’m a little above my pay grade here as I try to explain in more detail how they count spinoff effects of actual jobs created.Not that Mr. Biden answers the question here either. He simply omits excusing himself.]
But in fact--and by the way, I think we're going to create 600,000 jobs in the next 100 days, because now this thing is beginning to roll out. We actually have let these contracts, the governors with--who have money for road contracts and so on, they're now just putting spades in the ground, just hiring people. And so I don't know anybody who's argued with the model that we've used.
[Here is an unacquainted disputant. Here is another.]
But the key here for us is not whether or not we're going to argue about how many jobs, you know, there, there are out there, it's whether or not are we in fact producing employment for people? And it's undeniable.
[In fact there is no documentation for Mr. Biden's jobs number. It is disingenuous to say you won't argue "how many jobs" because "producing employment" is the key indicator. Especially since Team Barry -- and Mr. Biden in his next breath -- continues to brag on its 150,000 jobs "saved"* or created. What is undeniable is that 2,198, 000 jobs have been lost since February, at least 1,547 of which since enacting Mr. Obama's stimulus.]
MR. GREGORY: But--well, but that's an important point. You say people aren't arguing about that; in fact, they are. I mean, you're suggesting that this is an accepted model.
VICE PRES. BIDEN: Well, no, I...
MR. GREGORY: Your own economic adviser said this on Tuesday: "[Jared] Bernstein, Biden's economic adviser, said in an interview that the president's citation of [saving or creating] 150,000 [jobs] is `an estimate' based partly on what the economy would look like in the absence of the stimulus package. But Bernstein said he could not break down how many of those jobs were created vs. saved.* `That's a division we're not able to make at a level of accuracy we're comfortable with.' he said." And now you're talking about another 600,000 jobs. Should America just accept that level of progress?
VICE PRES. BIDEN: Look--yeah. No, no, they shouldn't. Look, whether this is, whether this was 147,000 jobs or 158,000 jobs is not the relevant point. Look, let me put it this way. Prior to us taking office, the job loss for the month was over 700,000 jobs. It's been over 600,000. Since we've taken office the job loss has dropped now to 343,000 jobs; below other people's estimates, below the consensus estimate. Can I claim credit that all of that's due, due to the recovery package? No. But it clearly has had an impact.
[Mr. Biden is confused, uninformed, and wrong all at once. Prior to Team Barry taking office between the start of the recession in December 2007 and January 2009, the largest monthly decline in nonfarm payroll -- the 343,000 (sic, 345,000) number Mr. Biden references -- was 598,000 in December 2008. The only months the job loss number was over 600,000 were February and March of this year -- after the stimulus was in force.
Mr. Biden here compares apples and oranges, the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey (CES), which calculates the lost or created (not "saved"*) jobs number (scil., nonfarm payroll), with the BLS Current Population Survey (CPS), which calculates the generally larger unemployed number. An explanation can be found here. The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 in May, which is an increase over the two months prior, further banjaxing Mr. Biden's banjaxed claims]
MR. GREGORY: But the point of the stimulus was it would stop the unemployment picture from getting worse, right? Wasn't that the claim?
VICE PRES. BIDEN: And it has.
MR. GREGORY: It has? Well, here...
VICE PRES. BIDEN: It's not getting worse.
[Here is Mr. Biden earlier this month:
And let me be very clear: A lower job rate loss is not our goal. "Less bad" is not how we're going to measure success -- we're going to measure success here in the White House. We will not be satisfied until we're adding jobs on a monthly basis; providing working Americans with a stable job, dependable income; ensuring that everyone who wants to make their way into the middle class has a shot to get into the middle class.]MR. GREGORY: But here's the reality, and that is...
VICE PRES. BIDEN: Relative.
MR. GREGORY: ...that when this report was issued by your economic adviser...
VICE PRES. BIDEN: Yes.
MR. GREGORY: ...and Dr. Romer from the White House, the assertion was that you could keep unemployment at 8 percent and then it would go down after that. In fact, it's now at 9.4 percent. Was it oversold?
VICE PRES. BIDEN: No, look. No. What we did is we took the econometric models that were used by businesses as well as academics. At the time no one realized how bad the economy was. The projections, in fact, turned out to be worse. But it was--we, we, we took the mainstream model as to what we thought and everyone else thought the unemployment rate would be. But the fact of the matter is the--I don't think anyone can dispute the unemployment rate would be considerably higher, but for--at least 150,000 jobs higher, but for this economic stimulus package.
[Surprise! Mr. Biden is in possession of the very crystal ball that Mr. Obama lacks. Alas, his puny 150,000 saved* or created jobs "in a total employment pool of 140,000,000 is barely more than 0.1%, which is the relative sampling error of the employment survey."
MR. GREGORY: Right. But the, but this package was sold on the premise that it would in fact keep unemployment at 8 percent. It's exceeded that...
VICE PRES. BIDEN: No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
MR. GREGORY: ...with the recovery plan.
VICE PRES. BIDEN: It wasn't sold on that. It was sold on it would create...
MR. GREGORY: That's what the report said, Mr. Vice President.
VICE PRES. BIDEN: ...or--no, it said it would--what would happen was it would save or create jobs. It's doing that. It is doing that. Everyone guessed wrong, at the time the estimate was made, about what the state of the economy was at the moment this was passed. Now, we're going to recalibrate this in terms of what we've inherited, what in fact is going on out there. But look, the bottom line is that jobs are being created that would not have been there before. All you've got to do is go into New York City. There's 14,000 teachers working who got their, got their notices. Go with me up to New Flyer bus company up in Minnesota, come--I mean, there--it's--throughout the country, it's creating jobs.
[Not everyone guessed wrong. Everyone guessing wrong is hardly the issue. That Team Barry guessed wrong is the issue.]
MR. GREGORY: Regardless, though, the economy is worse off with or without this stimulus plan that this administration expected.
VICE PRES. BIDEN: The economy was worse off when we made the assessment than anyone thought it was. The economy is actually getting better, things are getting better. We have a long, long way to go. But now you see what's happening. We're having a, a situation where housing is starting to improve, where lending is starting to come forward, where we have a situation where we've gained some control of the automobile companies who otherwise would have had to been liquidated in terms of them staying in business and having a prospect of growing. So I think if you ask out there, look--and look at what the, you know, these measures of confidence in the economy are. Everyone feels mildly better about where the economy's going.
MR. GREGORY: One more point about the stimulus, and that is you said when this thing was being debated, most of it would get out the door right away, $800 billion. And yet just this week there were reports about the fact that only 6 percent of that money has been spent so far.
VICE PRES. BIDEN: No, I don't know who said...
MR. GREGORY: Where are the projects?
VICE PRES. BIDEN: ...we're going to get $800 billion out the door in 100 days.
[Here is Mr. Obama, January 28, 2009:
Most of the money we're investing as part of this plan will get out the door immediately and go directly to job-creation, generating or saving three to four million new jobs.]We have over 2,000 projects approved. We have now a situation where you have people--you're going to see in the next--and let me--this is an important point. You let a contractor build a highway. It's $42 million, like I was just--did one in the state of Kansas, $42 million dollars. Now what's happened? The governor, the governor gets that approval. What's he doing? Puts it out to bid, competitive bid. It took somewhere between a month and three months to get those bids back. Now the spades are in the ground. Now it's working. That's why we're confidently going to predict that we will increase fourfold what went--and now $150 billion--$140 billion has been obligated now. But obligation requires, then, the states to go forward and get the contracting done according to the rules that they have within the state for competitive bidding.
CHOPE.
No crystal ball. No jobs. Relative.
------------------------------------
* There is no metric for "saved" jobs (and this).
June 16, 2009
NYC Letter: A Study In Contrasts
Day 147 of CHOPE
Mr. Obama,My understanding is, is that the Iranian government says that they are going to look into irregularities that have taken place. We weren’t on the ground, we did not have observers there, we did not have international observers on hand, so I can't state definitively one way or another what happened with respect to the election.
describing the limits of CHOPE
and minding his own business
PRESS AVAILABILITY
WASHINGTON June 15, 2009 (White House)
You've seen in Iran some initial reaction from the Supreme Leader that indicates he understands the Iranian people have deep concerns about the election.
Now, it's not productive, given the history of U.S.-Iranian relations, to be seen as meddling -- the U.S. President meddling in Iranian elections. What I will repeat and what I said yesterday is that when I see violence directed at peaceful protestors, when I see peaceful dissent being suppressed, wherever that takes place, it is of concern to me and it's of concern to the American people. That is not how governments should interact with their people.
Mr. Obama,
abdicating the title "leader of the free world"
for the less demanding role of concerned onlooker
PRESS AVAILABILITY
WASHINGTON June 16, 2009 (White House)
Don't meddle! [Pause.] There are certain expectations incumbent to the "leader of the free world". One of these is the advocacy of freedom. It may be sufficient for the EU to tongue-cluck "concern" about Iran and do nothing, but it is derelict for someone who has assumed the mantle of "leader of the free world" to sit out world events.
We are reminded of the importance the "leader of the free world" has in the lives of those who aspire to be free by two recent posts.
REAGAN DIDN’T REMAIN SILENT ON POLAND
June 16, 209 (Hot Air) - In mid-December 1981, the Polish government declared martial law, hoping to suppress the Solidarity uprising that started in Gdansk earlier that year. The Soviet puppet Wojciech Jaruzelski imprisoned thousands, including Solidarity leader Lech Walesa, and attempted to suppress self-determination by the Poles through force and intimidation. Then-President Ronald Reagan immediately reacted to the imposition of martial law by publicizing his conversation with Pope John Paul II the next day (emphases mine). The President:Your Holiness, I want you to know how deeply we feel about the situation in your homeland.I look forward to the time when we can meet in person.
Our sympathies are with the people, not the government.
... Reagan took a stand on freedom, where Obama sounds desperate for engagement with the forces of oppression. Germany’s Angela Merkel took a much tougher stand than Obama did, calling the oppression “totally unacceptable,” while all Obama can say is that it’s “deeply troubling”.
It’s the difference between leadership and management. Reagan led, and he inspired the Poles to continue the struggle that eventually helped free half of Europe from iron-fisted domination by the Soviet Union. Obama wants to manage the crisis to keep from having to lead. Big, big difference.
THE BIG DIFFERENCE
Left: Leader Of The Free World; Right: Anxious Tea Party Organizer
[Photo sources: Ron Edmonds/AP (R); Stephen Voss/WSJ]
And this.
GEORGE BUSH STOOD WITH DEMOCRACY ACTIVISTS --
OBAMA STANDS WITH DICTATORS
June 16, 2009 (Gateway Pundit)
All who live in tyranny and hopelessness can know: the United States will not ignore your oppression, or excuse your oppressors. When you stand for your liberty, we will stand with you.
President George W. Bush,
Second Inaugural Speech
January 20, 2005President Bush’s made this pledge to political dissidents and freedom activists in 2005, "We will stand with you." And, the oppressed took him at his word. There was an Orange Revolution in Ukraine, a Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan, and a Cedar Revolution in Lebanon that spring. There were democratic elections in Afghanistan where women were not only allowed to vote but took seats in parliament. There were democratic elections for the first time in the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia released political dissidents. There were Arab democracy conferences in Qatar and women were allowed to vote in Kuwait. Egyptian judges stood up against a regime. Another regime in Libya opened up to the West. And who could forget the Iraqis who walked for miles, braving terrorist death threats, to vote in free democratic elections for the very first time.
Both worth the full read. And the re-read.
CHOPE.
No meddling. No hope. No freedom.
June 15, 2009
NYC Letter: Robust Political Debate III
Day 146 of CHOPE
Mr. Obama,Obviously all of us have been watching the news from Iran. ... I am deeply troubled by the violence that I've been seeing on television. ... We will continue to pursue a tough, direct dialogue between our two countries, and we'll see where it takes us. But even as we do so, I think it would be wrong for me to be silent about what we've seen on the television over the last few days. And what I would say to those people who put so much hope and energy and optimism into the political process, I would say to them that the world is watching and inspired by their participation, regardless of what the ultimate outcome of the election was. And they should know that the world is watching.
commenting on the situation in Iran
after three days of being briefed by television
PRESS AVAILABILITY
WASHINGTON June15, 2009 (White House)
Caught off-guard without a ready apology. That doesn't leave much to say. [Pause.] Team Barry has been circumspect addressing the violence in Iran because it doesn't want to queer the nice tea party with Mr. Ahmadinejad. Any day now.
On Saturday, the White House was merely "monitoring" the situation, press secretary Robert Gibbs said in a statement. On Sunday, Vice President Joe Biden* said he had "doubts" about the election. And on Monday, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said the U.S. is "deeply troubled" by events in Iran but stopped short of condemning them."I haven’t used that word, 'condemn,'" he told the State Department press corps. “We need to see how things unfold.”
"You need to see more heads cracked in the middle of the street?" Fox New' James Rosen shot back.
"We need a deeper assessment of what’s going on," Kelly said.
THAT DEEPER ASSESSMENT
What's Going On
[Photo sources, top down: Boston Globe/STR/AFP/Getty Images;
Boston Globe/Reuters/Ahmed Jadalla;
Boston Globe/Olivier Laban-Mattei/AFP/Getty Images]
It is disconcerting that a president with the full resources of the United States at his disposal is instead following developments in Iran on television. Where was Mr. Obama's forward thinking? Where was his NSC? Nobody saw this coming? Just how tough a call is election fraud in Iran?
Here is what anyone watching television could learn in the run-up to the Iranian election: A repressive regime known for its thuggery hand-picks candidates, among whom is the darling incumbent with roots in the Revolutionary Guard. A perfunctory campaign becomes animated -- acrimonious -- and the straw reformer becomes a popular contender. Opposition rallies are disrupted by club-wielding pro-Ahmadinejad Basijis. [Pause.] Now just give this narrative a moment's thought. [A moment's thought later.] What is your best guess how this plays out?
Team Barry is not prepared to do much other than watch televison and fret. An administration not prepared to do much is better off not saying much.
This is what "smart power" employed by a community organizer looks like.
Meanwhile the opposition holds massive rallies and are beaten and shot and shot dead. Hey, what's on Letterman tonight?
CHOPE.
Unfolding silence. Deeper assessment. Good luck.
------------------------------------
* Providing a clueless administration clueless foreign policy expertise.
June 14, 2009
NYC Letter: Robust Political Debate Redux
Day 145 of CHOPE
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is officially declared the winner of the Iranian presidential election.
VIOLENCE FLARES AS AHMADINEJAD WINS IRAN VOTE
TEHRAN June 13, 2009 (MSNBC)
I don't think anyone anticipated this level of fraudulence. ... At least authoritarian regimes like Syria and Egypt have no democratic pretences. In retrospect it appears this entire campaign was a show -- (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah (Ali) Khamenei wasn't ever going to let Ahmadinejad lose.
Karim Sadjapour,
analyst at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
shocked that a government of thugs
would cheat at the ballot. Shocked!
June 13, 2009 (Hindustan Times/Reuters)
Team Barry pretends the election was good enough to be ambivalent. Best not raise a stink.
OBAMA ADMIN WILL NOT DESCRIBE
THE ANNOUNCED OUTCOME OF THE IRANIAN ELECTION
AS LEGITIMATE OR ILLEGITIMATE
WASHINGTON June 13, 2009 (FNC)
US HOPES IRAN VOTE SHOWS 'GENUINE WILL AND DESIRE'
NIAGARA FALLS, Ontario June 13, 2009 (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Saturday the U.S. hopes the outcome of the contested Iranian presidential election reflects the "genuine will and desire" of the Iranian people.
THE "GENUINE WILL AND DESIRE" OF THE IRANIAN PEOPLE
No Thuggery, Thank You. Also Please Respect The Vote
[Photo source: Farhad Rajabali/news.gooya.com]
THE "GENUINE WILL AND DESIRE" OF THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT
Lots Of Robust Political Debate
[Photo source: Farhad Rajabali/news.gooya.com]
AHMADINEJAD WIN DOESN’T STOP OBAMA
FROM ENGAGING IRAN
June 13, 2009 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration will proceed with its plan to engage Iran and deal with re-elected President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, even as it monitors complaints from his opponents that the election results were fraudulent.The Obama administration has concluded that it will have to forge ahead with its efforts to persuade Iran to stop its nuclear program and that it will have to work with Ahmadinejad, an administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. U.S. leaders must face the situation as it is, not how they wish it would be, the official said.
Oh yes, let's talk to these people. That they hold power by open fraud and thuggery is no reason to think they won't play fair with Team Barry. It's not legitimacy that's important. What's important is that Mr. Ahmadinejad take Mr. Obama's call.
Just a few tidy-ups before Mr. Ahmadinejad can chat.
POLICE BEAT PROTESTERS IN IRAN
AFTER AHMADINEJAD DECLARED WINNER
TEHRAN June 13, 2009 (Miami Herald/AP)
DEFEATED AHMADINEJAD RIVAL ARRESTED IN IRAN
June 14, 2009 (Haaretz) - Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi was reportedly arrested Saturday following the reformist's defeat at the polls by hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. ... Mousavi's arrest was reported by an unofficial source, who said that the presidential contender had been arrested en route to the home of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Pro-reform Mousavi has denounced the election as rigged and vowed he will not accept defeat. He and key aides could not be reached by phone Saturday.
IRAN ARRESTS 170 OVER VOTE PROTESTS
TEHRAN June 14, 2009 (AFP)
More at Gateway Pundit here on the post-election violence.
CHOPE.
Illegitimate government? No problemo. Team Barry is ready to talk!
June 13, 2009
NYC Letter: "Encouraging Signs"
Day 144 of CHOPE
Joe "Hi-Q" Biden,We need desperately to get this economy moving. We've got to create more jobs now.
then-VP-elect and soon-to-be stimulus policeman,
emphasizing the Obama presidency's top priority
December 23, 2008 (FNC)
OBAMA AGAIN RAISES ESTIMATE OF JOBS
HIS STIMULUS PLAN WILL CREATE OR SAVE
WASHINGTON January 10, 2009 (NYT) - One day after the nation’s unemployment rate was reported to be at a 16-year high, President-elect Barack Obama on Saturday again raised the estimate of how many jobs would result from his economic recovery plan, saying it would create or save three million to four million, nearly 90 percent of them in the private sector.... Without an economic recovery plan, the report [Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan, January 9, 2009] warned, the unemployment rate could hit 9 percent, up from 7.2 percent now. If the plan is adopted, unemployment is still expected to rise but then fall late this year.
... In the campaign, Mr. Obama vowed to create one million jobs, and after winning election he put forth a plan to create up to three million. The report now puts the figure at roughly 3.7 million, the midpoint of an estimated range of 3.3 million to 4.1 million jobs by the end of next year.
That was all of $787B ago.
Well, this morning we received another reminder of the challenges facing working families: the nation's payroll contracted again last month -- 345,000 jobs -- and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent, the highest jobless rate in almost 26 years.
... Analysts, as you all know -- and many of you are reporting -- expected that we'd lose more than 500,000 jobs in May. Instead, we lost $345,000 [sic] -- 345,000 jobs, nearly a third fewer than were expected. That's the lowest number of job loss since this past September, and the fourth month in a row that we're shedding fewer jobs than the month before.
... And I'm pleased that today's report shows some signs -- some signs that all this activity is having this desired impact. Construction unemployment, for example, is down 59,000 jobs in May, cutting in half the average of 125,000 jobs lost each month over the first four months of this year. And so there is some direct signs that what we're doing is having an impact.
... To sum it up -- encouraging signs, but a long, long way to go. Thank you all very much.
Joe "Stimulus Cop" Biden,
pleased to explain how continued job losses
and record unemployment are good news in Team Barryland
WASHINGTON June 5, 2009 (White House)
On Friday we learned we had lost an additional 345,000 jobs in the month of May. Now that was far less than expected, but it's still too many. ... Having said that, this was the fewest number of jobs, ah, that we have lost, ah, eh, in about eight months. So it was about half of the number lost just a few months ago.
And it's a sign that we're moving in the right direction.
Mr. Obama,
explaining how the half-empty employment glass
is still brimming with his 150,000 "saved*
or created" stimulus jobs**
June 8, 2009 (YouTube/Bloomberg)
Mr. Obama got his stimulus plan in February. February job losses were 651,000, March 663,000, April 539,000, May 345,000. That's 2,198, 000 jobs lost with Mr. Obama's stimulus in place. Where are Mr. Obama's four million jobs? Where are his one million jobs? [Pause.] Team Barry wants you to believe a trend of job loss is an "encouraging sign", a sign that Team Barry is moving America "in the right direction". Team Barry doesn't even bother forecasting job creation anymore. Oh! Wait! Six hundred thousand created or "saved"* jobs coming up! It's like a beautiful magical fairy tale come true. Oh no, wait. It's a fairy tale, but not true.
[Mr. Obama] concentrated in his remarks on the billions of dollars from a taxpayer-funded plan that will be disbursed this summer, although much what he was described was already in the works, spurring new debate about just how much the $787 billion stimulus plan is helping so far.
Team Barry invents its recovery out of counter-indicative "signs" and "solid hints". Actual substantive results are nowhere to be found.
[Pause.] Apparently Team Barry thinks you are just this stupid.
Here is a helpful visualization*** exposing the enormity of Team Barry's failed job creation policies.
THE NEW JOBLESS ECONOMY
The Right Direction
View Video Here
Here is another.
BEYOND THE 9% CEILING OF NO STIMULUS
Bluesky Unemployment In Team Barryland
[Original graphic source: Job Impact Of The American
Recovery And Reinvestment Plan]
CHOPE.
Two million jobs lost. Record 26-year high unemployment. Encouraging.
------------------------------------
* There is no metric for "saved" jobs (and this).
** For background on Mr. Obama's "spend America to prosperity" see here and here and here.
*** Here is another penny presentation exposing Team Barry's microscopic budget cuts.
June 12, 2009
NYC Letter: Robust Political Debate
BLOG NOTICE: Our normal Internet service is temporarily banjaxed. Our backup Internet access is spotty, slow, and inconvenient. Good news for skimmers who tire easily! For the next several days while we get this sorted out, posts will be light.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day 143 of CHOPE
OBAMA SAYS IRAN'S 'ROBUST' ELECTION DEBATE
HOPEFUL SIGN FOR US-IRAN ENGAGEMENT
June 12, 2009 (VOA) - President Barack Obama said Friday he's hopeful the robust political debate in Iran in connection with its presidential election will advance prospects for U.S.-Iranian engagement. Administration officials say plans to engage Tehran will go forward regardless of who wins the election.Obama administration officials have been careful not to take sides in public statements on the hotly contested multi-candidate race, led by incumbent Iranian President Mahmoud ["Merry Christmas"] Ahmadinejad and the relatively-moderate former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi.
But they have made no effort to conceal their fascination over the process, which featured acrimonious televised debates on major policy issues and massive public rallies. Mr. Obama:
Obviously after the speech that I made in Cairo, we tried to send a clear message that we think there's the possibility of change. And you know ultimately the election is for the Iranians to decide. But just as has been true in Lebanon, what can be true in Iran as well is that you're seeing people looking at new possibilities.Meanwhile, a senior State Department official who spoke to reporters on terms of anonymity said the administration's determination to seek dialogue with Iran is not dependent on any specific election outcome, and that the United States will seek to engage whoever wins. .. But, under questioning, the senior official said an Ahmadinejad victory is "not necessarily" a setback to the administration's engagement hopes.
THAT ROBUST POLITICAL DEBATE
The Unanswerable Rebuttal: Being Clubbed Senseless
[Photo source: behrang.us]
Photo caption: The picture shows club-wielding pro-Ahmadinejad Basijis (regime thugs). The vest the man is wearing says "Dr. Ahmadinejad." The man in the yellow vest is also with the Basiji.
Hey, Team Barry! You want some of this? Some robust Iranian debate?
AHMADINEJAD RENEWS CALL
FOR DEBATE WITH OBAMA
TEHRAN June 10, 2009 (FNA)- Iran's incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Tuesday said he would invite US President Barack Obama to a debate at the UN if elected as Iran's president once again.... He viewed debate as the best way for resolving world problems.
Debate. And open minacity.
PRIMARY RESULTS SAY AHMADINEJAD
IS WINNER OF ELECTIONS
TEHRAN June 13, 209 (IRNA)
Uh-ho. It's on!*
CHOPE.
Talk. Talk. Talk.
------------------------------------
* Or maybe not:
Challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi said he had won by a large margin during what he called an "emergency" news conference in Tehran. He also complained of voting irregularities, including the rigging of votes and deliberate attempts by the government to block people from casting ballots.... Late Friday, dozens of supporters gathered outside of several of Mr. Mousavi's campaign offices, shouting "God is great" and complaining about the reported results. Riot police aggressively dispersed one crowd by using batons and pepper spray. Supporters of Mr. Ahmadinejad honked their horns and gathered outside the Interior Ministry to celebrate, chanting provocative slogans against their opponent.
June 09, 2009
NYC Letter: Pants On Fire VII
Day 140 of CHOPE
Mr. Obama,We began by passing a Recovery Act that has already saved* or created over 150,000 jobs and provided a tax cut to 95 percent of all working families.
bragging on his largely unspent $787B stimulus plan
claiming 150,000 undocumented jobs created or saved*
PRESS CONFERENCE April 29, 2009 (White House)
On Friday we learned we had lost an additional 345,000 jobs in the month of May. Now that was far less than expected, but it's still too many. ... And it's a reminder that we are still in the middle of a very deep recession that was years in the making and it's going to take a considerable amount of time to pull out of. Having said that, this was the fewest number of jobs, ah, that we have lost, ah, eh, in about eight months. So it was about half of the number lost just a few months ago.
And it's a sign that we're moving in the right direction.
Mr. Obama,
explaining how the half-empty employment glass
is really brimming with his 150,000 "saved*
or created" stimulus jobs**
June 8, 2009 (YouTube/Bloomberg)
Say what? [We re-read the above.] A little background is in order.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces a monthly current Employment Situation Summary. This report uses two surveys to depict employment:
- The Current Population Survey (CPS), or "Household Survey", conducted by the Census Bureau, is based on a sample of about 60,000 households. The data from this survey is used to calculate the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate (scil., measure U3).
- The Current Employment Statistics survey (CES), or "Payroll Survey", conducted by the BLS, is based on a sample of 160,000 businesses and government agencies representing 400,000 individual employers. Using the CES data, the BLS calculates the number of lost or created (not "saved"*) jobs against the previous survey period.
It is the latest B number -- 345,000 jobs lost -- that Mr. Obama believes is a sign his policies are moving things along in the "right direction". To believe as Mr. Obama believes, you must believe Mr. Obama and completely skip the A numbers -- the unemployed and the unemployment rate.
The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 in May. That is over and above the 563,000 increase of April, which was over and above the 694,000 increase of March, which was over and above the 851,000 increase of February after Mr. Obama's stimulus.
When Mr. Obama took office the number of unemployed persons was 11.6 million and the unemployment rate was 7.6%. In February after Mr. Obama signed his stimulus into law the number of unemployed was 12.5 million and the unemployment rate was 8.1%. Today the number of unemployed is 14.5 million, an increase of 2.9 million (+25%) and 2 million (+16%), respectively, and the unemployment rate is 9.4%,*** a jump of 1.8% and 1.3%, respectively. A year ago, May 2008, the number of unemployed persons was 8.5 million and the unemployment rate was 5.5%. Now consider this:
Despite the recession [Mr. Bush] inherited, 09.11, stock market scandals, Hurricane Katrina and two wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan, the unemployment rate during the Bush years averaged out to 5.27%.
Certainly there are many ways to characterize these data, but "moving in the right direction" is a fairy tale and Mr. Obama knows it, which makes it a dishonest fairy tale.
And here is the really bad news.
America already has double-digit unemployment.In fact, the real unemployment rate, as opposed to the official rate, is well over 15 percent.
That's because the official unemployment rate -- which as of Friday stood at at 9.4 percent, following another leap in jobless claims for May -- is not, as economist John Williams has noted, "figured in the way that that the average person thinks of unemployment, meaning figured the way it was estimated back during the Great Depression."
What happens when we include people who have stopped looking for work because they do not believe there are jobs to be found, along with part-time workers who would like to be working full-time? Then, we start looking not at the unsettling 10 percent figure but the far more frightening 20 percent number.
As economist Howard Rosen told NPR after official unemployment topped 8 percent in February:
Today we learned that there are 12.5 million people who are unemployed, and we have another 8.6 million people who are working part-time because they cannot find full-time jobs. Now, you're talking about 20 million people in this country who are either unemployed or underemployed. I don't want to freak out people, but the unemployed number, we start talking about 15, 16 percent.Since February, of course, the official unemployment rate has spiked dramatically, as has the real rate.
[Hat tip: Hot Air]
The best that Mr. Obama can offer is that the worsening is less than expected.
This is what fairy tale job creation by a community organizer looks like.
CHOPE.
Empty stimulus. Empty rhetoric. Empty glass.
------------------------------------
* There is no metric for "saved" jobs (and this).
** For background on Mr. Obama's "spend America to prosperity" see here and here and here.
June 08, 2009
NYC Letter: Department Of Worship VIII
Day 139 of CHOPE
I saw God before me, because I saw this smile that a million people have seen around the world. I saw her (Michelle) radiant. ... It's idiotic, but it's like that.
Jacques Boudon,
restauranteur and proprietor of La Fontaine de Mars,
describing his experience serving the Obamas
PARIS June 7, 2009 (AP)
He gushes. He believes an American president is God. [Pause.] M. Boudon is French. The French, they worship Jerry Lewis also.
But how to explain the worship of the American press?
Well, we were the good guys in 1984, it felt that way. It hasn’t felt that way in recent years. So Obama’s had, really, a different task We’re seen too often as the bad guys. And he – he has a very different job from [Ronald Reagan's 40th D-Day Commemoration] – Reagan was all about America, and you talked about it. Obama is ‘we are above that now.’ We’re not just parochial, we’re not just chauvinistic, we’re not just provincial. We stand for something – I mean in a way Obama’s standing above the country, above – above the world, he’s sort of God. He’s-
Chris Matthews:* Yeah.
He’s going to bring all different sides together.
Evan Thomas,
Newsweek editor, testifying on Hardball
June 5, 2009 (NewsBusters/MSNBC)
He's serious. And he is here speaking in his capacity as an editor for Newsweek, so we may assume that this is a framing editorial concept at Newsweek. Mr. Obama "is sort of God". [Long pause.] Reverence due. [Shorter pause.] That goes a way toward explaining this sort of thing.
CHOPE.
Not little gee. Big Gee. God.
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* Mr. Matthews, he of the "leg thrill", is also an unabashed Obama worshiper (and this).
June 07, 2009
NYC Letter: Muslim Nation Redux
Day 138 of CHOPE
Mr. Obama,And one of the points I want to make is, is that if you actually took the number of Muslim Americans, we'd be one of the largest Muslim countries in the world. And so there's got to be a better dialogue and a better understanding between the two peoples.
previewing his Cairo talking points
June 3, 2009 (Telegraph)
An example of that "better dialogue" from the deep thinkers of the Islamic Thinkers Society (ITS).
OPERATION DESECRATE AMERICAN FLAG TO THE PUBLIC [SIC]
"Do Not Be Afraid. We Are Muslims. We Are Doing This.
We Have A Legal Permit And We Are Doing This."
NEW YORK June 8, 2005
This is not the worst of it. ITS condemns Jews, Christians, homosexuals, immodest and disobedient women, Shi'ites -- the usual grab bag of big and little, great and small Satans that beset good Islam, which, as it happens, is the Islam proselytized by ITS. Not surprisingly, ITS is unabashedly pro-terrorist. [Pause.] We searched the ITS site in vain for an explanation of why, with Allah (الرزاق, The Ever Providing) squarely backing its play, Islam has such a long sorry list of complaints. Why is Islam such an abject failure? Perhaps ITS should heed the Islamic benediction, In šāʾ Allāh (إن شاء الله, God willing). "God willing" seems to be the essential ingredient missing from the remedies propounded and the recourses sought by ITS Islam.
Located in NYC, ITS somehow skirts New York's hate laws because [A pause straining at political correctness.], well, because hate is an essential tenet of ITS religion, the practice of which is protected in law.
CHOPE.
The Caliphate, it's gonna be great!
June 06, 2009
NYC Letter: D-Day 2009
Day 137 of CHOPE
OMAHA BEACH, D-DAY JUNE 6, 1944
Soldiers Of Company E, 16th Regiment, 1st Infantry Division
[Photo source: Robert Capa*]
GENERAL EISENHOWER'S MESSAGE
Sent Just Prior To The Invasion
Soldiers, Sailors and Airmen of the Allied Expeditionary Force! You are about to embark upon a great crusade, toward which we have striven these many months. The eyes of the world are upon you. The hopes and prayers of liberty loving people everywhere march with you. In company with our brave Allies and brothers in arms on other fronts, you will bring about the destruction of the German war machine, the elimination of Nazi tyranny over the oppressed peoples of Europe, and security for ourselves in a free world.Your task will not be an easy one. Your enemy is well trained, well equipped and battle hardened, he will fight savagely.
But this is the year 1944. Much has happened since the Nazi triumphs of 1940, 41. The United Nations have inflicted upon the Germans great defeats, in open battle, man to man. Our air offensive has seriously reduced their strength in the air and their capacity to wage war on the ground. Our home fronts have given us an overwhelming superiority in weapons and munitions of war, and placed at our disposal great reserves of trained fighting men. The tide has turned! The free men of the world are marching together to victory!
I have full confidence in your courage, devotion to duty and skill in battle. We will accept nothing less than full victory!
Good Luck! And let us all beseech the blessings of Almighty God upon this great and noble undertaking.
NORMANDY AMERICAN CEMETERY AND MEMORIAL
Honored Glory, Known But To God
[Photo source: livinginprague.blogspot.com]
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* Robert Capa (1913-1954) was a renowned war photographer who was known to say, "If your pictures aren't good enough, you aren't close enough." On D-Day he disembarked with Company E on Omaha Beach. He recounted the experience in his biography, Slightly Out Of Focus:
The flat bottom of our barge hit the earth of France. The boatswain lowered the steel-covered barge front, and there, between the grotesque designs of steel obstacles sticking out of the water, was a thin line of land covered with smoke — our Europe, the 'Easy Red' beach.... The water was cold, and the beach still more than a hundred yards away. The bullets tore holes in the water around me, and I made for the nearest steel obstacle. A soldier got there at the same time, and for a few minutes we shared its cover. He took the waterproofing off his rifle and began to shoot without much aiming at the smoke-hidden beach. The sound of his rifle gave him enough courage to move forward, and he left the obstacle to me. It was a foot larger now, and I felt safe enough to take pictures of the other guys hiding just like I was.
Mr. Capa turned from the killing zone and headed for an LCI (Landing Craft Infantry).
I did not think and I didn't decide it. I just stood up and ran toward the boat. I knew that I was running away. I tried to turn but couldn't face the beach and told myself, 'I am just going to dry my hands on that boat.'
June 05, 2009
NYC Letter: Trust Team Barry, Part VII
Day 136 of CHOPE
Joe "Hi-Q" Biden,We need desperately to get this economy moving. We've got to create more jobs now.
then-VP-elect and soon-to-be stimulus policeman,
emphasizing the Obama presidency's top priority
December 23, 2008 (FNC)
Mr. Obama,This budget builds on the steps we've taken over the last 100 days to move this economy from recession to recovery and ultimately to prosperity. We began by passing a Recovery Act that has already saved* or created over 150,000 jobs and provided a tax cut to 95 percent of all working families.
bragging on his largely unspent $787B stimulus plan
claiming 150,000 undocumented jobs created or saved*
PRESS CONFERENCE April 29, 2009 (White House)
It's all about jobs.
U.S. PRIVATE SECTOR AXES
532,000 JOBS IN MAY
NEW YORK June 3, 2009 (Reuters) - U.S. private employers chopped more than half a million jobs in May, signaling job conditions remain tough and dashing some hopes the economy was not deteriorating as rapidly as thought, a [ADP National Employment Report] on Wednesday showed.
Please note, the hope is not that the economy might improve. The hope is that it mightn't deteriorate "as rapidly as thought". The continuing escalation of bad numbers does not leave much to "thought" in Reuters' twisted locution.
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MAY 2009
June 5, 2009 (BLS) - The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points.... Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs rose by 732,000 in May to 9.5 million. This group has increased by 5.8 million since the start of the recession.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 268,000 over the month to 3.9 million and has tripled since the start of the recession.
WHERE'S THE STIMULUS?
Higher Unemployment AND $787B In The Hole
[Original graphic source: Job Impact Of The American
Recovery And Reinvestment Plan, January 9, 2009]
See here and here for background:
In Figure 1 (B) we have plotted out the actual monthly unemployment rates since Mr. Obama's stimulus plan went into effect and the President's chief economic advisor's forecast through 3Q09. [Shock.] With Mr. Obama's $787B stimulus plan -- $12B more than the white paper's assumed plan -- in force unemployment is trending higher than the no-plan trend. [Pause.] The economy would have been better off without a cent of stimulus, a position the CBO advanced before passage.
With almost 2,000,000 jobs lost since taking office, Mr. Obama brags on "saving* or creating" 150,000 jobs. With 7 million jobs lost since December 2007, Mr. Obama's stimulus only aspires to save* 3.5 million jobs by the end of 2010** -- a year and a half from now. Saved jobs are no gain at all -- but even were 3.5 million jobs created outright, there would still be a 3.5 million job shortfall.
This is what job creation by a community organizer looks like.
CHOPE.
Politically calculated. Practically meaningless.
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* There is no metric for "saved" jobs (and this).
** Note that the administration is again re-characterizing the jobs goal of its stimulus spending. First it was "creating" jobs. Then it was the dubious duo, "creating or saving" jobs. Now, at the above link, it is just the dishonest "saving" jobs.
June 04, 2009
NYC Letter: Muslim Nation
Day 135 of CHOPE
ONE NATION, UNDER ALLAH
A Player In The Caliphate. Who Knew?
Imagine our surprise today to discover we live in "one of the largest Muslim countries in the world". We hurried outside to count the minarets, but all that we could find were the same church steeples last seen the day before. (We are writing from Virginia.) But appearances aside, no less an authority than the president himself has announced America is one of the big wheels of Islam.
Mr. Obama,And one of the points I want to make is, is that if you actually took the number of Muslim Americans, we'd be one of the largest Muslim countries in the world. And so there's got to be a better dialogue and a better understanding between the two peoples.
previewing his Cairo talking points
June 3, 2009 (Telegraph)
Except, of course, it is not. According to this NationMaster list, on a headcount, America ranks 41st behind the Islamic powerhouses Mali (23), Burkina Faso (29), Kazakhstan (31), Côte d'Ivoire (33), Chad (37), and France (38). The CIA World Factbook has Muslims at 0.6% of the American populace (scil., 1,843,273).* This is the smallest religious affliation shown. It is less than "None" (4%). As a percentage the United States doesn't make the top 50 Muslim nations, where last place is 47% (Kazakhstan).
What is it with this administration and its disdain for real numbers?
Surprise again! The White House is now bragging on Mr. Obama's Muslim roots.
THE EMERGENCE OF PRESIDENT OBAMA'S MUSLIM ROOTS
June 2, 2009 (ABC News) - The other day we heard a comment from a White House aide that never would have been uttered during the primaries or general election campaign.During a conference call in preparation for President Obama's trip to Cairo, Egypt, where he will address the Muslim world, deputy National Security Adviser for Strategic Communications Denis McDonough said:
The President himself experienced Islam on three continents before he was able to -- or before he's been able to visit, really, the heart of the Islamic world -- you know, growing up in Indonesia, having a Muslim father -- obviously Muslim Americans (are) a key part of Illinois and Chicago.... The candidate was even offended when referred to by his initials "BHO," because he considered the use of his middle name, "Hussein," an attempt to frighten voters.
With insane rumors suggesting he was some sort of Muslim Manchurian candidate, then-Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and his campaign did everything they could to emphasize his Christianity and de-emphasize the fact that his father, Barack Obama Sr., was born Muslim.
The candidate's comment at a Boca Raton, Florida, town hall meeting on May 22, 2008, was typical:
My father was basically agnostic, as far as I can tell, and I didn't know him.... Back then, the campaign's "Fight the Smears" website addressed the candidate's faith without mentioning his father's religion.
Someone remind us, just why is America making an outreach to a religion? A religion, we would add, whose inherent hatreds, intolerance, inequalities, circumscribed liberties, sanctioned brutalities, and theocratic mission America must eventually oppose -- or bow to? A religion like no other for inciting violence and terror.
CHOPE.
Sometimes a political liability. Sometimes a political plus. Never sincere.
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* If the other numbers on the NationMaster list above are correct then America's ranking would drop to 60th.
June 03, 2009
NYC Letter: Quote Of The Day: Harry Reid
Day 134 of CHOPE
Harry Reid (D-NV),I understand that during her career, she’s written hundreds and hundreds of opinions. I haven’t read a single one of them, and if I’m fortunate before we end this, I won’t have to read one of them.
Senate majority leader and know-nothing lexist,
bragging on his ignorance of SCOTUS nominee
Sonia Sotomayor's jurisprudence
WASHINGTON June 2, 2009 (POLITICO)
View video here.
Yes. Really. He is that stupid.
Earlier in the day Mr. Reid gushed:
If that wasn’t enough [Ms. Sotomayor's academic and professional credentials], her background is very significant — we could not have anyone better qualified.
How's that, Harry? How could you possibly know?
[Addressing Ms. Sotomayor.] I think your story is so compelling. Americans identify with the underdog, and you've been the underdog so many times in your life.
Here's a clue, a compelling life story is not a qualification for the bench, any bench, in the American judicature. Now go read the damn opinions!
CHOPE.
Waving through the Oprah judgeship.
