October 21, 2004
NYC Letter: Electoral Arithmetic
Are you tired of thoughtful but plodding analysis of the electoral college like this? Or this? And you've probably already had your one big laugh from one-laugh DNC fantasies like this.
You know in your heart that Mr. Bush will take at least 290 electoral votes come November 3, so why wait on reality to overtake the desultory forecasts of the fainthearted and finically scientific?
Here, go do it yourself. Don't be disturbed by the set-up you find, just click on blue states to appropriate them for Mr. Bush. Click, click. What battleground states? You are Karl Rove's god.
And why hash through all those contradictory polls that predictably produce outcomes reflecting the editorial biases of the commissioning clients?
You want to know who's going to win this election? Follow the money. Historically, the money is the single most reliable forecaster of election outcomes:
The Iowa Electronic Market has correctly predicted every US presidential election since 1988 and is picking George W Bush as the winner this year.
(Ho-ho! Within a trading range of 74¢, at the time of this post Mr. Bush trades at 59¢ and Mr. Kerry at 41¢. That equals a spread of 24%!).
UPDATE 10.22.04:
TradeSports Exchange Ltd is an online marketplace that trades contracts on various assertions, including contracts on political races. Its brick and mortar location is in Dublin Ireland. It is similar to a sports betting website but operates more like a futures market. The data for this projection comes from the state-by-state contracts for the assertion "George W. Bush to win this state in the November 2004 Election." A point costs $0.10 and a winning contract pays $10. In other words, the results depicted here are the collective judgments of a nation of bettors who are willing to put their money where their mouths are.
Ok, that's the crew. Now check out their electoral college betting board. As of this post Mr. Bush tallies 281 electoral votes vs. Mr. Kerry's 238. (Hat tip: James Taranto, BOTW(t))
Posted by Damian at October 21, 2004 09:38 AMMost reassuring. Still the skeptic in me would like to see some of the previous elections trade data, to confirm this historic prognosis.
PT,
Here's some background from the Nation Business Review. Money quotes:
The Iowa Electronic Market has correctly predicted every US presidential election since 1988 and is picking George W Bush as the winner this year.
In the popular election market, Mr Bush has held the lead almost without exception since the inception of trading in June. After taking a very wide margin following the Republican National Convention, however, the odds moved toward parity until the conclusion of the third debate, at which time they reversed course. At present, Mr Bush is rapidly gaining ground and Mr Kerry is rapidly losing investor confidence.
In recent US presidential elections, a candidate holding anything above a 60 per cent chance of winning a month out from the election, won.
Mr Bush is holding at that threshold with about two weeks to go and betting momentum is clearly signalling an increasing likelihood for his November win.
Hmm, I think I'll add that first quote to the post proper.
Regards,
DGB
