June 22, 2007
Pave: Hyped Economy IV
Le jour 38 de Sarko
PRIME MINISTER SETS 3.0-PERCENT GROWTH TARGET
PARIS May 23, 2007 (AFP) - [French Prime Minister François Fillon] said the annual growth prediction used in the 2007 French budget, of between 2.25- and 2.5-percent of gross domestic product (GDP), was "not good compared to the average in other major countries."Our target is to reach 3.0 percent," he said, without specifying a time-frame.
Thanks for the super pre-Parliamentary elections headline, M. Fillon!
Alas, it doesn't look like that big three-point-oh will be anytime soon.
FRANCE'S INSEE SEES 2007 GDP GROWTH
OF 2.1 PCT VERSUS 2.2 PCT IN 2006
PARIS June 21, 2007 (Forbes/AFX/Thomson Financial) - France's statistics office Insee forecasts 2.1 pct GDP growth for 2007, down slightly from the 2006 growth figure of 2.2 pct,* although supported by continuing solid domestic demand.The Insee GDP figure, given in its quarterly report on the French economy, is marginally lower than the OECD's estimate of 2.2 pct GDP growth for 2007 and government estimates of 2.25-2.5 pct, and compares unfavourably with the European Commission forecast of 2.4 pct growth.
Above all, France is expected to underperform the broader eurozone, where Insee sees GDP growth for 2007 of 2.8 pct.
Worse yet, exports are forecast to slow to +3.1% for 2007, compared to 6.0% in 2006. Oh! Ouch! (And -- ouch! -- here.)
Lucky all that tricky electing is over. (And here.)
Everything still doubleplusgood in France.
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* Another in the endless string of French economic revisions. In February Insee pronounced the 2006 growth number as 2.0%. Expect 2006 GDP to be revised downward to emphasis any 2007 improvements attributable to M. Fillon's government. More hype here.
PFFT (What is this?): Doubleplusgood ½ | Rayonnement français 0
Posted by Damian at June 22, 2007 03:00 AMHow funny! Following the first link to Forbes, one gets a BLACKBERRY ad!
Just when the French intelligence officials have identified BlackBerry as a security threat!
Nice job.
Posted by: andy at June 26, 2007 12:35 AMInteresting article in Commentary Magazine titled "Can France be Saved?"
Hate to post a large chuck here, but I found this part relating to your post interesiting.
France is still indisputably one of the richest and most economically successful countries in the world. It has a GDP of $2.2 trillion. Its per-capita national income is above $30,000. In other words, it is in the same league as Japan and Germany, two much more populous countries.
Present French wealth rests in part on traditional occupations like agriculture, tourism, and fashion; in the past 30 years, these have turned into high-value-added activities. It is also rooted in traditional industries and services (think of Airbus in aviation, Carrefour in mass distribution, Accor in the hotel business, Total-Elf in oil, Renault and Peugeot in the car industry, international banks like Société Générale and BNP-Paribas) as well as in high-technology fields (nuclear energy, telecom, pharmaceuticals). But more disquieting developments have been surfacing over the past two decades.
Whereas most big French companies have been profitable for years, the French GDP has been growing very slowly or not at all. What this means is that French industry and services derive the bulk of their revenue from activities overseas rather than from the domestic economy. In fact, some companies have already drawn the logical conclusion and moved out: a flagship French company like Renault is now registered in the Netherlands.
Bolding mine.
Andy,
This is a lift of a WSJ editorial from May 9, 2007. We posted on it here.
You are correct it is an excellent read.
Regards,
DGB
