NYC Letter: Topper To The Whopper Redux

Iraqi Body Count ("IBC"), which authored a flawed 2004 report on fatalities in Iraq -- the subject of our earlier post here -- doesn't think much of the competition. In a press release IBC questions the recent Lancet report's claims of 650,000 Iraqi war-related deaths:

A new study has been released by the Lancet medical journal estimating over 650,000 excess deaths in Iraq. The Iraqi mortality estimates published in the Lancet in October 2006 imply, among other things, that:

1. On average, a thousand Iraqis have been violently killed every single day in the first half of 2006, with less than a tenth of them being noticed by any public surveillance mechanisms;
2. Some 800,000 or more Iraqis suffered blast wounds and other serious conflict-related injuries in the past two years, but less than a tenth of them received any kind of hospital treatment;
3. Over 7% of the entire adult male population of Iraq has already been killed in violence, with no less than 10% in the worst affected areas covering most of central Iraq;
4. Half a million death certificates were received by families which were never officially recorded as having been issued;
5. The Coalition has killed far more Iraqis in the last year than in earlier years containing the initial massive "Shock and Awe" invasion and the major assaults on Falluja.

IBC concludes with a snort:

In the light of such extreme and improbable implications, a rational alternative conclusion to be considered is that the authors have drawn conclusions from unrepresentative data. In addition, totals of the magnitude generated by this study are unnecessary to brand the invasion and occupation of Iraq a human and strategic tragedy.

IBC puts Iraqi war-related deaths at between 43,937-48,783. The 4,846 differential represents about a 5% deviation from the average.

If you are going to cook the numbers, please do so believably.