Pave: Hyped Elections

Le jour 33 de Sarko

Follow the de-escalating hype as hard reporting overtakes the phoned-in "news analysis" and pass-along party press releases in this procession of headlines.

SARKOZY PARTY SET FOR HUGE MAJORITY
IN PARLIAMENT VOTE
PARIS June 15, 2007 (AFP)

FRENCH CONSERVATIVES EXPECT LANDSLIDE
PARIS June 16, 2007 (USA Today/AP)

SARKOZY HEADED FOR BIG WIN IN FRENCH POLL
PARIS June 16, 2007 (Reuters)

SARKOZY'S CONSERVATIVES HEAD TO MAJORITY
PARIS June 17, 2007 (Forbes/AP)

SARKOZY PARTY WINS MAJORITY
PARIS June 17, 2007 (Australian)

SARKOZY GETS REDUCED MAJORITY
FOR REFORM CAMPAIGN
PARIS June 17, 2007 (AFP)

NO TSUNAMI VICTORY FOR SARKOZY
PARIS June 17, 2007 (Time)

SARKOZY WINS AND LOSES
IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION

PARIS June 17, 2007 (EUX.TV/dpa) - As expected, French President Nicolas Sarkozy won a healthy majority in Sunday's parliamentary election run-off, but many observers - and Sarkozy himself - may not regard the result as a victory.

"I need a large majority to carry out profound reforms," Sarkozy said during the campaign for the two rounds of the parliamentary election. And polls suggested that the dynamic president would get it, with some surveys predicting his conservative alliance would win up to 501 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly.

But the landslide did not occur. In fact, according to estimates, Sarkozy's conservative Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) actually lost about 35 seats compared with the number it held in the outgoing National Assembly.

And the opposition Socialists, given up for dead, gained some 55 seats, while the entire French Left, which includes the Greens and Communists, added a total of about 55 seats to what they had held.

... Emboldened by a strong parliamentary opposition, the unions may not hesitate to take their battle to the streets if their demands are not taken into account.

In France, as practically nowhere else in the world, street protest continues to be an accepted and, very often, highly effective means of influencing political decision-making.

TNS-Sofres gives the L'UMPs a slightly worse standing.

ESTIMATION DES RÉSULTATS [2E TOUR]

D’après notre estimation TNS Sofres-Unilog réalisée pour TF1 et RTL, en sièges, l’UMP recueillerait 323 sièges, ce qui lui assure la majorité absolue à l’Assemblée nationale ; le PS obtiendrait 206 sièges, les Verts, 4 et le PC, 18 sièges. Le Nouveau centre obtiendrait 22 sièges et le MoDem, 4 sièges.

Rappel : dans la précédente Assemblée élue en 2002, l’UMP et apparentés détenait 359 sièges, le PS et apparentés 149 sièges, l’UDF et apparentés 29 sièges, les communistes 21 sièges, et les non-inscrits, 19.

[According to our estimate TNS Sofres-Unilog conducted for TF1 and RTL, in seats, UMP will collect 323 seats, which ensures it a clear majority in the French National Assembly; the PS will secure 206 seats, the Greens, 4 and the Communists, 18 seats. The New Center would obtain 22 seats and the Modem, 4 seats.

Recall: in the preceding Parliament elected in 2002, UMP and affiliated parties held 359 seats, the PS & co. 149 seats, UDF & co. 29 seats, the Communists 21 seats, and independents, 19.]

This arithmetic gives the L'UMPs a net post-presidential loss of 36 seats, the PS a net gain of 57 seats. The Communists fall below the qualifying limit of a recognized Parliamentary group. And Sarkomania is confounded by Centermania, which nets an inaugural 26 seats.

PFFT (What is this?): Headline disappointments 3½ | Rayonnement français ½