Pave: The NIC Inkblot

Le jour 206 de Sarko

Notwithstanding the latest elements, everyone is fully conscious of the fact that there is a will of the Iranian leaders to obtain nuclear weapons.

Sarko,
Président de la République française,
holding to the new French line on Iran
December 6, 2007 (BBC)

This Monday the United States National Intelligence Council released a nine-page National Intelligence Estimate ("NIE") assessing Iran's nuclear threat, Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities. Less than half the report (four pages) is devoted to findings.

As the name suggests, an NIE is an interpretive document. It interprets the best intelligence available at the time as percentage plays. The report is replete with "estimative language" and probalistic terms. Like a Rorschach inkblot, the report can be whatever one wants to see. For example, here in part are three key findings (there are eight multi-part key findings):

• We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.

• Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so.

• We assess with moderate confidence that convincing the Iranian leadership to forgo the eventual development of nuclear weapons will be difficult given the linkage many within the leadership probably see between nuclear weapons development and Iran’s key national security and foreign policy objectives, and given Iran’s considerable effort from at least the late 1980s to 2003 to develop such weapons.

These findings prompted these headlines:

SARKOZY: IRAN REPORT REINFORCES CONCERNS

PARIS December 5, 2007 (AP) — French President Nicolas Sarkozy said a new U.S. intelligence report saying Iran stopped its nuclear weapons development in 2003 reinforces international concerns and should not diminish pressure for new sanctions.

MERKEL, SARKOZY SAY IRAN STILL POSES A THREAT
PARIS December 7, 2007 (Reuters)

IRAN'S NUCLEAR KNOW-HOW UNIMPEDED
WASHINGTON December 7, 2007 (CSM)

QUE VOYEZ-VOUS ? / WHAT DO YOU SEE?
Pave Sees: An Iranian Nuclear Device Detonated In Tel Aviv
Mad Mo Sees: A Hasidim Wearing A Shtreimel Stretching Out
His Zionist Tentacles To Feast On The Spoil Of Islam

Then there are, in part, these two key findings:

• We continue to assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon.

• Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005. Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously.

Other findings, other headlines:

AHMADINEJAD: U.S. INTELLIGENCE REPORT A VICTORY FOR IRAN

TEHRAN December 6, 2007 (Tehran Times/Agencies) - A new U.S. intelligence review concluding Iran has no atomic weapons program is a ""declaration of victory"" for the Iranian nation, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad said Wednesday. Mad Mo:

This is a declaration of victory for the Iranian nation against the world powers over the nuclear issue. This was a final shot to those who, in the past several years, spread a sense of threat and concern in the world through lies of nuclear weapons. Today is the day of victory for the Iranian nation and thank God all plots hatched by the enemies of Iran have failed. ... The pride of the enemies will never let them confess to their mistakes.

"The pride of the enemies will never let them confess to their mistakes", yet Mad Mo claims an Iranian victory on what he believes to be just such a confession.

IRAN NUCLEAR REPORT DIVIDES REPORTERS

December 6, 2007 (BBC) - World media reaction to the US intelligence report suggesting that Iran had suspended any nuclear weapons programme is divided. Iran:

The release of certain parts of the intelligence report regarding Iran's nuclear activities has weakened the position of anti-Iran countries at the 5+1 talks, and instead it has strengthened the position of China and Russia. ... However we cannot believe that America will drop its hostile policies against the country because it is obviously controlled by the Zionists.

IRAN'S SUPPORTERS PLEASED, SKEPTICAL

MOSCOW December 6, 2007 (LAT) - With a sense of vindication and a touch of suspicion, Iran's embattled defenders absorbed the news this week: U.S. intelligence services no longer believe the Islamic Republic has an active nuclear weapons program.

Russia and China have struggled to stave off new United Nations Security Council sanctions against Iran, and both were quick to turn the latest U.S. intelligence report against the Bush administration.

... Both countries also have flouted conventional American wisdom with repeated arguments that, in fact, Iran's nuclear program didn't pose a serious threat.

REPORT ON IRAN FUELS ARAB FEARS

CAIRO December 6, 2007 (LAT) - The dwindling possibility of a U.S. attack on Iran is changing the dynamics of Middle East politics and raising Arab concern that Tehran may now feel emboldened to strengthen its military, increase its support for Islamic radicals and exert more influence in the region's troubled countries.

BRIGHT PROSPECT IN TEHRAN
December 7, 2007 (gulfnews.com)

HELEN THOMAS: NO NUKES IN IRAN, JUST AS IN IRAQ
WASHINGTON December 5, 2007 (SLT/Hearst)

Ms. Thomas's byline is a headline because her pronouncements are that important.

And this damning tautology from the DNC's premier Breck Girl:*

EDWARDS STATEMENT
ON NEW NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON IRAN

CHAPEL HILL, North Carolina December 3, 2007 (johnedwards.com) – Today, Senator John Edwards released the following statement on the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran:

"The new National Intelligence Estimate shows that George Bush and Dick Cheney's rush to war with Iran is, in fact, a rush to war."

Mr. Edwards is a Democrat presidential nominee candidate who is, in fact, running for the Democratic nomination for presidential candidate.

Those who categorically believe the findings of this NIE to be palliative or vindicative are the same folk who categorically disbelieved the ominous findings of the 2005 NIE. Was the 2005 NIE wrong and is the 2007 NIE right? One year dead wrong, the next incontestible? To pose the questions is to confuse estimations with facts (as, in fact, Mr. Edwards, the DNC tautologist with the lovely hair, does). To say that one has "moderate-to-high confidence that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon" is a best-guess. Iran exploding a nuclear bomb is a fact.

To read the 2007 NIE and conclude that a nuclear-armed Iran is not a threat -- or not much of a threat or not a threat to bother about now -- is, well, not to have read the report attentively. We invite you, gentle reader, to follow the link above and read the report in its brief entirety.

Then there are always those who promote opinions irrespective of facts or estimations.

I would say that what is dangerous about this situation [scil., Iranian uranium enrichment] is not the fact of having a nuclear bomb - having one, maybe a second one a little later, well, that's not very dangerous.

Then-Jack,
signaling that France has decided
Europe can live with a nuclear Iran
January 29, 2007 (IHT)

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* For background on Breck Girls, click here.

PFFT (What is this?): Peaceable Iran inkblot ½ | Nuclear armed Iran inkblot 4 | Iranian nuclear threat inkblot 5 | Rayonnement français ½

Posted by Damian at December 7, 2007 03:30 PM