February 07, 2008

Pave: "A Sad Record"

Le jour 268 de Sarko

Malgré la progression des exportations, notre solde industriel, à peine positif, ne peut compenser la facture énergétique qui représente plus de l’essentiel du déficit commercial.

[Despite an improvement in exports, our industrial balance, which is barely positive, cannot compensate for the energy bill, which represents most of the trade deficit.]

Hervé Novelli,
French Secretary of State for Foreign Trade,
lamenting another failed government forecast
(infra)

FRANCE'S TRADE DEFICIT BREAKS 'SAD' RECORD

February 7, 2008 (France24/AFP) - The 2007 French trade deficit will likely come close to a record 38-39 billion euros (56-57 billion dollars),* Secretary of State for Foreign Trade Herve Novelli said in an interview to appear Thursday.

Novelli told the newspaper La Tribune the performance amounted to "a sad record." The shortfall in 2006 was 28.2 billion euros, according to customs authorities, who are due to release the 2007 figures on Thursday.

... In the first 11 months of the year the shortfall amounted to 35.5 billion euros, far more than the 31.7 billion forseen by the government.**

This is the skimpy story in English,*** which represents that special sanitized French view to the world. The French version tells lucky Frenchies all the bad news:

La balance commerciale était encore positive en 2003. Hervé Novelli explique l'aggravation de la situation par la hausse du prix des carburants, un argument contesté par les experts qui évoquent la baisse de compétitivité des entreprises.

Ce mauvais chiffre était attendu, en raison notamment de l'appréciation de l'euro mais aussi et surtout à cause d'une dégradation de la compétitivité de l'économie française qui s'accentue depuis le début des années 2000.

[The trade balance was still positive in 2003. Herve Novelli explains the worsening of the situation by the rise in the price of fuels, an argument disputed by experts who refer to the decline in competitiveness of companies.

This bad figure was expected, particularly because of the appreciation of the euro but more especially because of the French economy's deterioration in competitiveness, which intensified at the beginning of the decade.]

Hhmmm. What was it that ushered in the decade? What was that special thing?

Dans une étude récente intitulée "La compétitivité française en 2007", le centre de recherche Coe-Rexecode indique que la part des échanges français dans l'ensemble des échanges mondiaux de marchandises a baissé en huit ans, passant de 5,3% en 1999 à 4% en 2007.

... Cette érosion s'est accompagnée d'un net décrochage entre l'évolution des exportations françaises et celles des principaux pays de la zone euro, Allemagne en tête.

[In a recent study entitled "French competitiveness in 2007", the research center Coe-Rexecode shows the share of French exchanges of all the world trade in goods dropped in eight years, from 5.3% in 1999 to 4% in 2007.

... This erosion was accompanied by a definite separation between French export trends and those of the principal Euro zone countries, with Germany in the lead.]

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* Pfft, peanuts compared to the AFP reported budget deficit.

** Oh!, that a French government economic forecast could be so wrong, so reckless, so unrealistic (and this and this). Fudged. Faked! Oh!

*** Here is the France 24 arithmetic in the English report lede:

The 2007 French trade deficit is expected to reach 39 billion euros - up 10 million [sic] compared with last year...

That's an immediate 99.9% reduction in this year's increase. Another neat French trick.

PFFT (What is this?): Breaking records on the way down 3½ | Rayonnement français 0

Posted by Damian at February 7, 2008 05:30 PM
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