Pave: Hyped Economy VI

Le jour 311 de Sarko

Politicians love forecast headlines. They are big and black and grab the public's attention. Often the names are spelled correctly. But most important, they are ephemeral. Easily forgotten from one edition to the next. Every headline is the start point of how things are. Every headline brings a bright new day, a better world, hope anew.

Ah, but Pave remembers.

Our target is to reach 3.0 percent.

François Fillon
French Prime Minister, announcing fabulous growth to come
in advance of last year's parliamentary elections
PARIS May 23, 2007 (AFP)

FRANCE'S LAGARDE CONFIRMS
2008 GROWTH FORECAST OF 2.0-2.5 PCT

PARIS December 12, 2007 (Forbes/AFX/Thomson Financial) - French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde reiterated France's forecast for 2008 economic growth of between 2.0 and 2.5 pct, saying there was no reason to change it.

Mdm. Lagarde:

The 2008 budget is built on a range of 2.0-2.5 pct, with a median of 2.25 pct. We maintain this forecast.

FRENCH GOVT STAYS OPTIMISTIC DESPITE GROWING RISK

PARIS January 15, 2008 (fxstreet.com/Dow Jones) - French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said Tuesday that the government's target of 2.0% to 2.25% growth in gross domestic product this year is attainable, after rising by "close to" 2.0% growth in 2007.

Marc Touati, Global Equities' chief economist:

As we can see since 2001, the gap between government forecast and reality will remain significant.

MINISTER: FRANCE NOT TO REVISE GROWTH FORECAST
DESPITE GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN

PARIS January 18, 2008 (Xinhua) - Economy Minister Christine Lagarde said Friday France will not revise down its economic growth forecast for 2008 despite the gloomy prospects of the world economy.

Lagarde said it is not necessary for the country to revise the forecast of between 2 percent and 2.5 percent for fiscal 2008, as the growth already has reached an average of 2.25 percent.

And now presentng today's headlines.

FRANCE'S LAGARDE EXPECTS TO CUT
2% FORECAST FOR 2008 GROWTH

Whoa! Wasn't that target 2.5% (vid. supra)?

PARIS March 20, 2008 (Bloomberg) - French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde expects to cut her forecast for 2008 economic growth next month, she said in an interview with Europe 1 radio today.

Mdm. Lagarde:

I would be surprised if our forecast remains totally identical (to the current 2 percent forecast). There will be a little cut.

France's economy is set to trail its European neighbours for a third year in a row.

FRENCH GOVT PLANS 'SLIGHT' DOWNWARD
REVISION OF FY GDP TARGET - LAGARDE

PARIS March 20, 2008 (Forbes/Thomson Financial) - The government's forecast is currently for GDP growth in 2008 of 'close to' 2.0 pct compared with an estimate of 1.7 pct growth by the European Commission and 1.5 pct by both the IMF and the Bank of France.

The French 2008 budget was based on a 2.25 pct GDP growth estimate.

Whoa! Wasn't the working number 2.5% (vid. supra)?

Lagarde said the goverment is in the process of reviewing all of its economic models 'using slightly different figures,' noting that 2008's budget was based on a euro/dollar exchange rate of 1.35 compared to around 1.56 at present [off by 16%] and on a 75 usd per barrel oil price compared to around 105 last night [off by 40%].

Mdm. Lagarde:

In mid-April, we will reissue growth forecasts and I think there will be a slight drop.

She said the necessary measures will be taken to ensure the French economy holds up better than its European neighbours.

The International Monetary Fund, headed by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, sees French GDP of only 1.5% this year.

One point five! Not to worry. Everything always doubleplusgood in France.

More hyped economy here, here, here, here, here, and here.

PFFT (What is this?): Unbelievable headlines 3½ | Rayonnement français 0

Posted by Damian at March 21, 2008 04:00 AM