Pave: Hyped Economy VII

Le jour 332 de Sarko

It's not good news, but it's not a catastrophe.

Éric Woerth,
ministre du Budget, des Comptes publics
et de la Fonction publique and master of meiosis,
explaining why today's disaster is better
than tomorrow's catastrophe
(infra)

Forget 2008. That's busted. Time to switch to 2009 happy talk.

FRANCE'S LAGARDE SEES FRENCH GDP GROWTH
BETWEEN 1.75 PCT AND 2.25 PCT IN 2009

PARIS April 10, 2008 (Forbes/Thomson Financial) - French economic growth next year is expected to be between 1.75 percent and 2.25 percent, finance minister Christine Lagarde said Wednesday at a hearing of the National Assembly's finance commission.

That rather misses the mark.

FRANCE'S SARKOZY COMMITS TO
2.5-3 PCT GROWTH TARGET FOR 2009

PARIS September 21, 2007 (Forbes/AFX/Thomson Financial) - Nicolas Sarkozy last night set a growth target of 2.5-3 pct for 2009 in a bid to 'achieve full employment'. Sarko:

As regards growth: for 2007, it has nothing to do with me; for 2008, we'll try and boost it and for 2009, that will be mine. We need to see growth of between 2.5 and 3 pct to achieve full employment. I've committed to these targets.

And the growth shortfall is sure to be worse than Mdm. Lagarde's forecast as the government consistently misses the high-cast.

• For 2003, forecast growth 2.5%, actual growth .5%, off by 80%

• For 2004, forecast growth 2.5%, actual growth 2.1%, off by 12%.

• For 2005, forecast growth 2.5%, actual growth 1.4%, off by 44%.

• For 2006 forecast growth 2.75%, actual growth 2%, off by 27%.

• For 2007, forecast growth 2.5%, actual growth 1.9%, off by 24%.

In our sample, the government has never achieved a forecast, has never exceeded a forecast, has never done better than a 12% miss, and on average has missed its targets by 37%.

The minister reiterated the government's new economic growth target for this year of between 1.7 percent and 2.0 percent. Originally the government planned for growth of 2.25 percent.

The government may unrealistically plan for 2.25% growth (a working number it had until recently affirmed and re-affirmed), but it fraudulently talks it up as 3%.

This is a neat French trick. Here is another.

PFFT (What is this?): Is the French government lying about growth? 3½ | Rayonnement français 0

Posted by Damian at April 11, 2008 10:00 AM