Pave: Hyped Economy VIII

Le jour 451 de Sarko

As we can see since 2001, the gap between government forecast and reality will remain significant.

Marc Touati,
chief economist, Global Equities,
commenting on successive French governments
to the present talking up hope eternal
PARIS January 15, 2008 (fxstreet.com/Dow Jones)

FRANCE'S LAGARDE SAYS INSEE GROWTH FORECASTS
'EXCESSIVELY PESSIMISTIC'

PARIS June 20, 2008 (Forbes/Thomson Financial) - Insee said yesterday that French GDP growth will slow to 1.6 percent in 2008 as France starts to feel the effects of the global economic slowdown. Its full-year GDP growth forecast is slightly below the French government's current target range of 1.7 to 2.0 percent.

Nothing seems to discourage Mdm. Lagarde's economic boosterism of the French economy. Certainly not bad news.*

FRENCH INDUSTRIAL CONFIDENCE
'HITS THREE-YEAR LOW'

PARIS July 24, 2008 (AFP) — French industrialists are the gloomiest about business prospects for three years, a survey by the statistics institute INSEE showed on Thursday, pointing to a sharper economic slowdown in coming months.

FRENCH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
DIPS TO NEW RECORD LOW

July 29, 2008 (RTTNews) - The French consumer confidence fell to a new record low in July, results of a [INSEE] monthly consumer confidence survey showed. Meanwhile, official data revealed that producer price inflation increased in June... The latest business survey report released by the INSEE revealed that demand in the French manufacturing industry fell noticeably in the second quarter and business leaders expect a further decline in demand in the third quarter.

French housing starts declined 28.2% in three months to June, larger than the 21.6% fall recorded during three months to May, official data showed. Meanwhile, housing permits showed a 15.3% decrease. For three months to May, decline in housing permits was 19.9%.

This is a new record low from the record low of June.

FRANCE'S TRADE DEFICIT SWELLS TO RECORD HIGH IN JUNE

PARIS August 7, 2008 (Guardian/Reuters) - France's trade deficit ballooned to a record high in June... The value of imports outstripped exports by 5.6 billion euros ($8.7 billion)... The deficit far exceeded the 4.6 billion euros expected in a Reuters survey of economists, fuelling expectations for weak, or even no economic growth in the second quarter.

Bad news is only a foil for better-days-just-around-the-corner headlines.

LAGARDE SAYS UPTURN FOR FRENCH ECONOMY
A POSSIBILITY FROM H2 2009

PARIS July 15, 2008 (Reuters/Thomson Financial) - Finance minister Christine Lagarde said GDP growth in France in 2008 is likely to be at the bottom of the range of the official forecast and that an upturn is a possibility from the second half of next year.

FRENCH MINISTER SEES INFLATION RATE
FALLING OFF 17-YEAR HIGH IN COMING MONTHS

PARIS July 22, 2008 (IHT/AP) - French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Tuesday she expects the inflation rate to start falling in the months ahead as the economy absorbs last year's rise in fuel and food prices.

"Inflation will fall in coming months," she told reporters, adding that the rate for July will remain high.

Focus on the fabulous future -- this is a neat French trick. "Coming months", ah, dear skimmer, why that is anywhere from September to the eschaton. We explain how you too can perform neat tricks like a French finance minister here.

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* Also see posts here and here.

PFFT (What is this?): Mdm. Lagrade bets on the eschaton 3½ | Rayonnement français 0

Posted by Damian at August 8, 2008 03:45 PM