Pave: Where Is The French Peace Mob? III

Le jour 472 de Sarko

GÉORGIE ? NE ME DÉRANGE PAS, S'IL TE PLAIT.
(L) Manif contre la guerre en irak, (R) rein
No Complaints With Russian Invasions

[Hat tip: Hervé]

The problem -- well, one of many -- running a totalitarian state is that you come to believe that the clumsy lies you force on your own citizenry will be swallowed whole by the free world at large. The Russian account of its invasion of Georgia is old school Soviet "glorious lies". The Soviet legacy is not one of subtlety and finesse. Geopolitics, international law, treaties, gimmicks (e.g., seeding "Russian" citizens in Ossetia), timings, logisitics, and out-sized destruction all belie the dopey Russian fairy tale of righteous pacification.

HOW THE GEORGIAN CONFLICT REALLY STARTED

Augusrt 28, 2008 (WSJ) - According to the Georgian president, the Russians had been planning an invasion of his country for weeks -- even months -- ahead of time. Mr. Saakashvili:

Some months ago, I was warned by Western leaders in Dubrovnik to expect an attack this summer. Mr. Putin had already threatened me in February, saying we would become a protectorate of Russia. When I met Mr. Medvedev in June, he was very friendly. I saw him again in July and he was a changed man, spooked, evasive. He tried to avoid me. He knew something by then. I ask everyone to consider, what does it mean when hundreds of tanks can mobilize and occupy a country within two days? Just the fuelling takes that long. They were on their way. Would we provoke a war while all our Western friends are away on vacation? Be sensible.

I got a call from the minister of defense that Russian tanks, some 200, were massing to enter Tskhinvali from North Ossetia. I ignored it at first, but reports kept coming in that they had begun to move forward. In fact, they had mobilized reserves several days ahead of time.

This was precisely the kind of information that the Russians have suppressed and the world press continues to ignore, despite decades of familiarity with Kremlin disinformation methods. Mr. Saakashvili:

We subsequently found out from pilots we shot down that they'd been called up three days before from places like Moscow. We had intelligence coming in ahead of time but we just couldn't believe it. Also, in recent weeks, the separatists had intensified artillery barrages and were shooting our soldiers. I'd kept telling our guys to stay calm. Actually we had most of our troops down near Abkhazia where we expected the real trouble to start. I can tell you that if we'd intended to attack, we'd have withdrawn our best-trained forces from Iraq up front.

Why did the Russians not act before or later? It was a matter, [Mr. Saakashvili] said, of several factors coming together: the useful distractions of the Beijing Olympics and the U.S. elections, the fact that it took Mr. Putin this long to consolidate power, the danger that tanks would bog down in the winter.

But two factors above all sealed Georgia's fate this summer, it seems. In April, NATO postponed the decision to admit Georgia into the organization until its next summit in October. Mr. Saakashvili believes Moscow felt it had one last chance to pre-empt Georgia's joining NATO.

Finally, he says, the invasion had to be done before the situation in Iraq got any better and freed up U.S. forces to act elsewhere -- a matter not simply of U.S. weakness but of increasing U.S. strength. Mr. Saakashvili:

If America thinks it is too weak to do anything about Georgia, you should understand how the Russians see it, how much Moscow respects a strong United States -- or at least a U.S. that believes in its own strength.

[Hat tip to Sebaneau for keeping us current with developments and world opinion on this.]

PFFT (What is this?): Russia, invade anywhere you like but France (svp) 3½ | Rayonnement français 0