NYC Letter: Trust Team Barry, Part VII

Day 136 of CHOPE

We need desperately to get this economy moving. We've got to create more jobs now.

Joe "Hi-Q" Biden,
then-VP-elect and soon-to-be stimulus policeman,
emphasizing the Obama presidency's top priority
December 23, 2008 (FNC)

This budget builds on the steps we've taken over the last 100 days to move this economy from recession to recovery and ultimately to prosperity. We began by passing a Recovery Act that has already saved* or created over 150,000 jobs and provided a tax cut to 95 percent of all working families.

Mr. Obama,
bragging on his largely unspent $787B stimulus plan
claiming 150,000 undocumented jobs created or saved*
PRESS CONFERENCE April 29, 2009 (White House)

It's all about jobs.

U.S. PRIVATE SECTOR AXES
532,000 JOBS IN MAY

NEW YORK June 3, 2009 (Reuters) - U.S. private employers chopped more than half a million jobs in May, signaling job conditions remain tough and dashing some hopes the economy was not deteriorating as rapidly as thought, a [ADP National Employment Report] on Wednesday showed.

Please note, the hope is not that the economy might improve. The hope is that it mightn't deteriorate "as rapidly as thought". The continuing escalation of bad numbers does not leave much to "thought" in Reuters' twisted locution.

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MAY 2009

June 5, 2009 (BLS) - The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points.

... Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs rose by 732,000 in May to 9.5 million. This group has increased by 5.8 million since the start of the recession.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 268,000 over the month to 3.9 million and has tripled since the start of the recession.

WHERE'S THE STIMULUS?
Higher Unemployment AND $787B In The Hole
[Original graphic source: Job Impact Of The American
Recovery And Reinvestment Plan, January 9, 2009]

See here and here for background:

In Figure 1 (B) we have plotted out the actual monthly unemployment rates since Mr. Obama's stimulus plan went into effect and the President's chief economic advisor's forecast through 3Q09. [Shock.] With Mr. Obama's $787B stimulus plan -- $12B more than the white paper's assumed plan -- in force unemployment is trending higher than the no-plan trend. [Pause.] The economy would have been better off without a cent of stimulus, a position the CBO advanced before passage.

With almost 2,000,000 jobs lost since taking office, Mr. Obama brags on "saving* or creating" 150,000 jobs. With 7 million jobs lost since December 2007, Mr. Obama's stimulus only aspires to save* 3.5 million jobs by the end of 2010** -- a year and a half from now. Saved jobs are no gain at all -- but even were 3.5 million jobs created outright, there would still be a 3.5 million job shortfall.

This is what job creation by a community organizer looks like.

CHOPE.

Politically calculated. Practically meaningless.

------------------------------------
* There is no metric for "saved" jobs (and this).

** Note that the administration is again re-characterizing the jobs goal of its stimulus spending. First it was "creating" jobs. Then it was the dubious duo, "creating or saving" jobs. Now, at the above link, it is just the dishonest "saving" jobs.