NYC Letter: Hot/Cold, Part IV

Day 356 of CHOPE

The end of ice.

The truth is that the threat we face is not an abstract concern for the future. It is already upon us and its effects are being felt worldwide, right now. Scientists project that the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer of 2013. Not in 2050, but four years from now.

John "Henny Penny" Kerry (D-MA),
alerting us to the end of ice
WASHINGTON August 31, 2009 (HuffPo

No. Wait. Plenty of ice.

THE MINI ICE AGE STARTS HERE

January 10, 2010 (Daily Mail) - The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years, say some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists. Their predictions – based on an analysis of natural cycles in water temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans – challenge some of the global warming orthodoxy’s most deeply cherished beliefs, such as the claim that the North Pole will be free of ice in summer by 2013.

According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado, Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007 – and even the most committed global warming activists do not dispute this.

The scientists’ predictions also undermine the standard climate computer models, which assert that the warming of the Earth since 1900 has been driven solely by man-made greenhouse gas emissions and will continue as long as carbon dioxide levels rise. They say that their research shows that much of the warming was caused by oceanic cycles when they were in a ‘warm mode’ as opposed to the present ‘cold mode’.

Ah, dear carbon furnace, that would explain how the AGW crowd got the "settled science" so wrong. They were guessing. And they guessed wrong.

Prof Anastasios Tsonis, head of the University of Wisconsin Atmospheric Sciences Group:

I do not believe in catastrophe theories. Man-made warming is balanced by the natural cycles, and I do not trust the computer models which state that if CO2 reaches a particular level then temperatures and sea levels will rise by a given amount.

These models cannot be trusted to predict the weather for a week, yet they are running them to give readings for 100 years.

... This challenge to the widespread view that the planet is on the brink of an irreversible catastrophe is all the greater because the scientists could never be described as global warming ‘deniers’ or sceptics.

Models that are unreliable forecasting a week out, good enough for the greater challenge of forecasting twenty, thirty, one hundred years out. Quick, let's turn the economy on its head (and here). [Great excitement.] Let's further bankrupt ourselves by picking up the tab (and here) for an emergent big polluter. It is industrial social justice, practically the only justice tolerated by the emergent big polluter.

30 YEARS OF GLOBAL COOLING ARE COMING,
LEADING SCIENTIST SAYS

January 11, 2010 (FNC) - Oranges are freezing and millions of tropical fish are dying in Florida, and it could be just the beginning of a decades-long deep freeze, says Professor Mojib Latif, one of the world's leading climate modelers.

Latif thinks the cold snap Americans have been suffering through is only the beginning. He says we're in for 30 years of cooler temperatures -- a mini ice age, he calls it, basing his theory on an analysis of natural cycles in water temperatures in the world's oceans. ... Latif is a key member of the UN's climate research arm, which has long promoted the concept of global warming.

... "Has ocean variability contributed to variations in surface temperature? Absolutely, no one's denying that," said Mark Serreze, senior research scientist with NSIDC [U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center]. But the Center disagrees with Latif's conclusions, instead arguing that the cold snap is still another sign of global warming.

You see. Even a "mini ice age" is indisputable evidence of global warming.

Many parts of the world have been suffering through record-setting snowfalls and arctic temperatures. The Midwest saw wind chills as low as 49 degrees below zero last week, while Europe saw snows so heavy that Eurostar train service and air travel were canceled across much of the continent. In Asia, Beijing was hit by its heaviest snowfall in 60 years.

And as for the cold weather? Mr. Serreze:

This is just the roll of the dice, the natural variability inherent to the system.

Unlike Mr. Serreze and his easy predictions, hard-to-predict nature does not load the dice.

CHOPE.

Hot. Cold. Guess again.