NYC Letter: Point/Counterpoint -- Contenders

Day 999 of CHOPE

The 9-9-9 Edition

Point.

DAVID AXLEROD: HERMAN CAIN
NOT A SERIOUS CONTENDER

October 17, 2011 (Politico) - David Axlerod took a swing at Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain Monday, saying that he thought Cain’s 9-9-9 proposal would hurt the poor and the middle class.

... Despite the attention suddenly being heaped on the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO, Axelrod said Cain was not going to be a top-tier contender in the 2012 election. ... But Axlerod implied that Romney was the candidate the White House is taking most seriously.

Counterpoint.

2012 Presidential Matchups
CAIN 43%, OBAMA 41%

POLL October 17, 2011 (Rasmussen) - At the moment, the Georgia businessman is the only Republican with a lead of any kind over Obama, although former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has held a similar advantage several times and is currently trailing the president by just two points.

Campaign Barry is stoking the Romney "inevitability" narrative because Mr. Romney is their candidate of choice. A Romney nomination all but takes Obamacare out of the picture and plays well to progressive religious bigotry (Mr. Romney is a practicing Mormon). Like Mr. Obama, Mr. Romney decided to made a premature run for the presidency after less than three years in elective office. Unlike Mr. Obama he came up short.

Campaign Barry promotes Mr. Romney as the man to beat because he is probably the easiest Republican to beat on the issues.

Mr. Romney's politics are evolving, the nice way of saying he has changed his mind on issues. Politicians -- just like you, inconstant reader -- change their minds all the time based on circumstance, conviction, or advantage -- sometimes all three at once. However in politics a change of mind without sufficient percolation -- or an erratic string of "evolving" positions -- is usually criticized as opportune flip-floppery. [Pause.] Because it usually is. Mr. Romney's flip-flop problem greatly attenuates Mr. Obama's broken promises problem.

Campaign Barry is betting that Mitt Romney is most like their candidate, Mr. Obama. The more the Republican nominee looks like Obama-lite or Obama-around-the-edges, the more likely the voter will vote the real thing and not the Republican knock-off. At least that seems to be the thinking.

CHOPE.

Mitt Romney. The man to beat.

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ALMOST INSTANT UPDATE:

MITT ROMNEY, HERMAN CAIN
TIED NATIONALLY, CNN POLL SHOWS
POLL October 17, 2011 (Politico)