NYC Letter: On The Fail Trail -- Little Things Add Up V

Day 1,208 of CHOPE

The anecdotal evidence and the polls continue to knit up.

CAN'T DRAW A CROWD, MR PRESIDENT?
OBAMA MAKES SPEECH IN COUPLE'S GARAGE...
AND EVEN THEY SAY THEY MIGHT NOT VOTE FOR HIM
RENO, Nevada May 12, 2012 (Daily Mail)

That's the small stuff. Surely Mr. Obama is still a big draw in the big venues, the staged rallies that turn out the base for show.

OBAMA PLEADS AT RALLY:
'I'M ASKING YOU TO KEEP BELIEVING IN ME'

COLUMBUS May 5, 2012 (ABC News) - The president routinely tells Democratic audiences that he knows it will be difficult to recapture the energy that powered him to the White House. He got a reminder of that struggle in Columbus: His rally drew 14,000 people to an arena that holds 18,300. And before he spoke, the Ohio State University newspaper The Lantern tweeted that ushers were asking people at the rally to move "in order for seats to look full for TV."

OK. [Pause.] The pollsters will have Mr. Obama's back. You can hide a lot of bad news in a cooked poll.

ROMNEY HAS SLIGHT EDGE OVER OBAMA

POLL May 14, 2012 (CBS News) - Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney has a slight edge over President Obama in the race for the White House in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

According to the survey, conducted May 11-13, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Romney, while 43 percent say they would opt for Mr. Obama. Romney's slight advantage remains within the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus four percentage points.

... Sixty-two percent of registered voters cited the economy as the most important issue in the presidential election. ... Most Americans (67 percent) believe the economy is in bad shape, but respondents expressed the most optimism on that issue since January 2008 - months before the economic crisis was in full swing.

... Romney now leads the president among independents, while Mr. Obama has an advantage among moderates. Independents opted for Romney 43 percent to Mr. Obama's 36 percent, whereas moderates supported Mr. Obama 50 percent to Romney's 39 percent.

Romney took the lead among women voters, who supported the former Massachusetts governor 46 percent to Mr. Obama's 44 percent, which is within the poll's margin of error. In April,

USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL SHOWS VOTERS
MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ECONOMY
UNDER ROMNEY THAN OBAMA

BLOG May 15, 2012 (Hot Air) - USA Today leads the analysis of its joint poll with Gallup on the news that people have become more optimistic on the economy, and that’s good news for Barack Obama. ... The key takeaway:

In the poll, 55% say the economy would get better over the next four years if Romney was elected, compared with 46% who say it would improve if Obama was re-elected. Twenty-seven percent say the economy would get worse in a Romney first term, compared with 37% who say that of an Obama second term.

Consider that with this nugget, and it’s starting to look like Republican momentum:

For the first time during this campaign cycle, the GOP has an advantage in congressional elections. By 50%-44%, those surveyed say they’re likely to vote for the Republican congressional candidate. The two parties were tied in the USA TODAY Poll in February, and Democrats had a 7-point advantage last August.

NATIONAL MOOD A DRAG ON OBAMA'S RE-ELECTION PROSPECTS

PRINCETON May 16, 2012 (Gallup) - According to Gallup polling in early May, Obama's approval rating is below 50%, Americans' satisfaction with the direction of the country is barely above 20%, and the economy remains a dominant concern.

... Perhaps the broadest indicator of the public's mood comes from Gallup's satisfaction measure, which asks Americans if they are satisfied or dissatisfied with "the way things are going in the United States at this time." The 24% of Americans currently satisfied is most similar to the 20% recorded in May 1992 during George H.W. Bush's first and only term.

What about Mr. Obama's record (which he seems to think an election irrelevancy)?

56% FAVOR REPEAL OF HEALTH CARE LAW

POLL May 14, 2012 (Rasmussen) - The majority of voters continue to support repeal of President Obama’s national health care law, and belief that repeal would be good for the economy has edged up to its highest level since late 2010.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 56% of Likely U.S. Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law, while 37% are at least somewhat opposed. This includes 46% who Strongly Favor repeal of the measure versus 26% who Strongly Oppose it.

OK. What about his bold lead-from-behind-Joe-Biden gay marriage evolution?

MOST AMERICANS THINK OBAMA'S GAY-MARRIAGE
ENDORSEMENT WAS POLITICALLY MOTIVATED

POLL May 14, 2012 (Politico) - More than two thirds of Americans believe President Obama's public endorsement of gay marriage was motivated by politics, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll.

A total of 67 percent overall said it was a political maneuver. That includes 86 percent of Republicans, and -- more importantly -- 70 percent of independents.

Only 24 percent said they thought he did it "because he thought it was the right thing to do."

ONE IN FOUR LESS LIKELY TO BACK
OBAMA OVER SAME-SEX MARRIAGE
POLL May 14, 2012 (CBS News)

Mr. Obama must be plenty worried about his prospects in November. No. Not really.

OBAMA: 'I’M NOT WORRIED'
President Rubs Shoulders With Celebrities,
Bashes Republicans At NYC Fundraiser

May 14, 2012 (WFB) - President Obama declared “I’m not worried” about reelection before an audience of well-heeled campaign donors in New York City today, according to White House pool reports.

"Their message will be, 'You're upset, you’re unsatisfied. It’s Obama’s fault.' But I’m not worried. The reason I’m not worried is because of you," Obama said.

Because of you. You and your big money. [Pause.] But someone on Campaign Barry is pretty worried. [Hat tip: Hot Air]

CELL PHONE BAN KEEPS
OBAMA FUNDRAISERS SECRET

May 14, 2012 (BF) - In the latest attempt to crack down on potentially embarrassing digital leaks from presidential fundraisers, President Barack Obama's campaign has begun asking donors attending small fundraisers with the president to turn over their cell phones before entering.

... An Obama aide called the move it "standard operating procedure," but veterans of a range of other campaigns said they'd never heard of the practice, which is common in secure White House spaces where there are concerns of espionage, but unknown in contexts in which only political secrets are discussed.

... Former aides to presidential candidates Hillary Clinton, Rick Perry, and Jon Huntsman all expressed surprise at the practice, and they've never seen an instance where a campaign asked donors to surrender their cell phones.

The former Clinton aide called the Obama policy "absurd," suggesting that the Obama policy is almost certainly a response to the infamous 2008 fundraiser where Obama described voters in rural Pennsylvania as "bitter".

... "What is he hiding? Candidates should be for and against the same issue in private as they are in public," said former Perry campaign manager Rob Johnson. "This shows just how uncomfortable the Obama team is with their message and their candidate. And in addition to religion and guns, voters like to cling to their cell phones."

A spokesman for the Secret Service confirmed that the ban was not put in place at their request.

Let's keep this stuff off YouTube. And the embarrassing suck-ups. And those boomerang sucker punches. And that red meat is just for customers who pay for sirloin. What's said and done at fundraisers is just between Mr. Obama and your wallet.

Big money will get you in the door, but it won't buy you your 15 minutes of fame anymore. And no more cheapie cell phone new-best-friend photos.

CHOPE.

Fail momentum. Six months out.

Posted by Damian at May 16, 2012 07:45 AM