NYC Letter: On The Fail Trail -- Little Things Add Up VI

Day 1,216 of CHOPE

It's bad news for Campaign Barry all the way down.

We began our "little things add up" theme in January and continued with one a month through May (here and here and here and here). But "little things" are adding up at a precipitate pace and here we are with our second "addition" post this month. As the election nears expect the frequency of posts with this theme to pick up, chock-a-block with "addition".

So many start points, let's just pick one out of the big "bad news" hat. Oh! it's the workingman's empath, Joe "I Get It" Biden.

SWING STATES SHOW DIM VIEW OF BIDEN

POLL May 23, 2012 (USA Today) - In a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, Americans split on whether they like or dislike the vice president – 42% said they had a favorable opinion, 45% said unfavorable – but the numbers are worse in key swing states.

In the 12 swing states likely to determine the outcome of the presidential election, only 40% of registered voters view Biden favorably, while 54% view him unfavorably.

... Independents are also down on the VP, with 50% saying they view him unfavorably and 35% holding a favorable view. The survey found the same pattern with voters who are not strongly committed to any candidate, with 52% viewing Biden unfavorably and only 33% holding a favorable view.

OK. People vote for the top of the ticket. Mr. Obama, not Mr. Biden, will pull in the vote.

4 IN 10 DEMOCRATS
DESERT OBAMA
IN ARKANSAS, KENTUCKY PRIMARIES

May 22, 2012 (The Hill) - In Arkansas, John Wolfe — a perennial, long-shot candidate — took 41 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary, with 71 percent of precincts reporting. Obama came in just under 60 percent. The Associated Press did not call the race for Obama until close to midnight.

And in Kentucky, 42 percent of Democrats chose "uncommitted" rather than cast a vote for the incumbent president. Obama took 58 percent, with 99 percent of precincts reporting.

Mr. Obama -- the incumbent president -- beats out a million-to-one shot and "uncommitted", that is nobody at all, with less than 60% of the party vote in two separate contests. These results follow Mr. Obama's underwhelming less-than-60% win earlier this month in the West Virginia primary over an incarcerated felon -- doing time in Texas! John Wolfe at least is a person and is running at large.

Those are Democrat candidates and a Democrat non-existing candidate. Put Mr. Obama up against Mr. Romney and that's a different story.

WAPO/ABC POLL SHOWS DEAD HEAT
BETWEEN ROMNEY, OBAMA

POLL May 22, 2012 (Hot Air) - The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Barack Obama only three points ahead of Mitt Romney, 49/46, within the margin of error. The poll also shows Obama’s advantage among women dissipating, and the President falling further behind his challenger on the economy. All of this is rather amazing, given the manner in which Republicans keep shrinking in the sample series.

... Today’s D/R/I is 32/22/38, which means this model would only be predictive for a turnout model where only 22% of voters are Republican. Just to remind readers, the 2008 turnout split from exit polls showed a 39/32/29 split, and that was considered a nadir for Republican turnout. In the 2010 midterms, the split was 35/35/30.

... Even with this poor sampling, though, Obama can’t gain any momentum. His job approval dropped in this series from 50/45 to 47/49. His rating on the economy sank to 42/55, not as bad as March’s 38/59 but slipping from last month’s 44/54. Among all adults (as in the preceding figures), Obama only leads Romney by 4, 49/45 — and a Democrat who can’t get to 50% among general-population adults is in serious trouble. The 49/46 comes from registered voters, with its substantial handicap among Republicans.

QUINNIPIAC FL POLL PUTS ROMNEY UP BY 6, 47/41

POLL May 23, 2012 (Hot Air) - Two months ago, Quinnipiac gave Barack Obama a statistically significant if not entirely comfortable seven-point lead in the key swing state of Florida at 49/42. Now, after two months of Bain attacks, gay marriage flip-flops, a visa to the daughter of Cuban dictator Raul Castro, and a weakening economy, the same pollster puts Mitt Romney up by six, 47/41.

Those numbers will improve once Campaign Barry's brilliant attack ads expose Mr. Romney's heartless business record.

OBAMA'S NEW ATTACK AD,
ALREADY DEBUNKED

May 14, 2012 (NRO) - The new Obama ad hits Mitt Romney for the closure of GST Steel after its purchase by Bain Capital, Romney’s former financial firm.

Romney’s departure from Bain: 1999.

GST Bankruptcy Filing and layoffs: 2001. (Dan Margolies, "Shutdown Is End Of An Era", The Kansas City Star, 2/8/01)

The Washington Post’s Fact-Checker, discussing earlier Obama attacks that used the same technique – blaming Romney for decisions his old firm made after he left:

We’ve gone over this problem with the Obama campaign before, awarding three Pinocchios to a January memo the team released blaming Romney for job losses and bad deals that took place after the former executive had stopped working for Bain. ... These facts essentially exonerate Romney from allegations that he was responsible for any outsourcing, bad deals and layoffs that occurred with Bain’s companies in the early 2000s.

The Post gave Obama "Three Pinocchios" for the attack.

44% SEE ROMNEY’S BUSINESS PAST
AS REASON TO VOTE FOR HIM,
33% DISAGREE
POLL May 21, 2012 (Rasmussen)

So Campaign Barry is running a lame offense. [We search the heavens.] The zeitgeist is strong! And on the important issues of today, um-ah -- Class warfare! Abortion! Mr. Obama is in lockstep with the zeitgeist!

POLL: AMERICANS LIKE THE RICH CLASS

May 11, 2012 (Politico) - Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe that the United States benefits from having a rich class, a figure unchanged from over 20 years ago, according to a new survey Friday.

Indeed, 63 percent of Americans believe that the United States is better off from having a class of wealthy, according to Gallup. Only 34 percent believe that the country does not benefit from having an upper class.

Even as the president has called on the rich to pay their "fair share" in taxes, the Occupy Wall Street protests, and amid a public debate over the so-called Buffett rule, American views of the rich have not changed significantly in over 20 years.

"PRO-CHOICE" AMERICANS AT
RECORD-LOW 41%
Americans Now Tilt "Pro-Life"
By Nine-Point Margin, 50% To 41%
POLL May 22, 2012 (Gallup)

[We search...the bottom of the barrel.] Well, there's always this:

President Obama is going to run on his remarkable record of accomplishment.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL, 20th),
DNC chair and proud owner of the Obama economy
TAMPA February 1, 2012 (970wfla.com)

And the pillars of that remarkable record are [Hard swallow.] the economy and Obamacare.

UNDER OBAMA: 30 WORST MONTHS
OF EMPLOYMENT IN THE PAST 25 YEARS
May 23, 2012 (TWS)

56% FAVOR REPEAL OF HEALTH CARE LAW

POLL May 14, 2012 (Rasmussen) - The majority of voters continue to support repeal of President Obama’s national health care law, and belief that repeal would be good for the economy has edged up to its highest level since late 2010.

POLL: MAJORITY OF AMERICANS
OPPOSE OBAMA HHS MANDATE

May 22, 2012 (LifeNews) - A new poll conducted by Marist College and released by the Knights of Columbus, a Catholic organization, shows a majority of Americans oppose the controversial Obama HHS mandate that forces religious groups to pay for drugs that may cause abortions.

... According to the Knights of Columbus-Marist Poll, nearly three in four Americans (74 to 26 percent) say that freedom of religion should be protected, even if it conflicts with other laws. Majorities would also protect the First Amendment conscience rights of hospitals, health care workers and insurers.

OBAMA'S GRAND MISCALCULATION WITH CATHOLICS

May 22, 2012 (FNC) - The news Monday that 43 different Catholic entities across the country are suing the Obama administration, in response to the Health and Human Services' (HHS) rule mandating employer health care coverage of contraception, abortion-inducing drugs, and sterilization, comes as a blow to the president's strength among Catholics, a demographic that helped carry him to victory in 2008.

This news comes on the heels of the the latest CBS News/New York Times poll which finds Mitt Romney now leading President Obama among women, yet another demographic that he previously commanded.

... A recent survey by the Pew Research Center shows that, despite the administration’s self-portrayal as the champion of "women’s issues" amidst a supposed Republican "war on women," the president’s reelection advantage among women has declined in recent months as well as with another key demographic -- Catholics.

Obama was ahead among Catholics by 9 points in early March, and is now trailing by 5 points.

That's a devastating 14 point swing. How much of the loss can be regained? Maybe some with the drift of time --in ever shorter supply before November -- but not enough without a climb-down on the mandate, which, of course, will outrage his base. Team Barry crossed the Rubicon with the mandate. Any going back and he'll lose the troops that took him to Rome. Now only the Supreme Court ruling against Obamacare can save Mr. Obama from his signature accomplishment.

The Pew survey finds that, among Catholic voters with an opinion, 47% would today vote for President Obama, and 52% for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

That same margin, were it to hold on Election Day, would mark a swing of 18 million voters away from Obama. The loss of these Catholic votes alone would remake the 2008 electoral map, delivering Florida to Governor Romney and leaving the president no margin for error in Colorado or Ohio.

At this point if you are Campaign Barry you look to the party to rally behind its standard bearer and buy him a little love with the locals.

'HE'S FAILED IN THE ONE TEST
AMERICA HAD FOR HIM.'

May 23, 2012 (NRO) - Up in North Dakota, the Democrats’ candidate for Senate does her part to help the president:

In an interview, [Heidi Heitkamp, a former state attorney general] made it clear she intends to keep her distance from Obama. Ms. Heitkamp:

I think he's failed in the one test America had for him, which was to unite the country. I think he needed to be more hands-on. … I don't think he's done enough to think broadly and come up with solutions that would engage both sides in a reasonable dialogue.

Bad news all the way down.

CHOPE.

Fail momentum. Six months out.

Posted by Damian at May 24, 2012 02:00 AM