NYC Letter: On The Fail Trail -- Little Things Add Up VII

Day 1,221 of CHOPE

Low CHOPE Edition

Another installment of bad news, bad polls, bad calls, and -- more bad news for Mr. Obama.

We will let former San Fran mayor and lifelong Democrat Willie Brown set the mood.

OBAMA'S RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN - THE THRILL IS GONE

May 27, 2012 (SFC) - The president's trip to the Bay Area last week made it painfully clear that the Barack Obama re-election campaign has lost its mojo. There was no life, no personality, no memorable line or moment and no real enthusiasm in the entire fundraising foray. In short, there was no buzz.

It was like a summer rerun of a show that wasn't very interesting to begin with.

Worse yet, Obama sounded like he was playing catch-up to Mitt Romney. I can't think of anything that should have him in that role, but he's acting like the underdog.

Obama was more than a candidate last time out. He was a popular and cultural phenomenon. A rock star. But the trouble with rock stars is that they drop like a rock once fans conclude they are "over".

The trick in politics is not to be a one-hit wonder, but to be more like the Grateful Dead.

Mr. Obama's mojo went missing elsewhere.

OBAMA A 'LITTLE FLAT' IN DENVER

May 23, 2012 (TWS) - According to today's White House pooler, the New York Times's Peter Baker, "The crowd was obviously supportive and glad to see him, though the room at times felt a little flat and Potus seemed a little tired after a long day that’s not even close to being over." (The president has two more fundraisers tonight in California.)

Moreover, the campaign announced that the president "[would] headline a reception for 700 at the Hyatt Regency Denver at the Colorado Convention Center. General admission tickets started at $500 apiece, though a selected number of Gen44 and Grassroots tickets were available for $250."

The campaign now says, according to the pooler, that only 550 people showed up.

And when the president showed up at the site of the Denver fundraiser, he was met with protesters.

A small money fundraiser and Mr. Obama can't draw a full house, with 21% no-shows and no-sales.

Can Mr. Obama, as Mr. Brown suggests, transform his flash-in-the-pan CHOPE into something consistently so-so?

ROMNEY LEADS POLL OF SMALL-BUSINESS OWNERS

POLL May 24, 2012 (HuffPo) - Forty-nine percent of [small] business owners plan to vote for presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney, while 32 percent of respondents say they'll support President Obama, according to a report released this week by Manta.

... In the eight [sic, nine] swing states shaping up to be the central election battleground, small businesses favor Romney even more, Manta found. Of the small-business owners surveyed in those states, 53 [sic, 57] percent said they'll vote for Romney, while 32 percent said they will choose Obama.

ROMNEY TOPS OBAMA BY 28 POINTS
AMONG MALE VETERANS

POLL May 28, 2012 (The Hill) - A new Gallup poll released on Memorial Day shows male veterans breaking strongly for Mitt Romney over President Obama.

The presumptive GOP nominee receives support from 58 percent of all veteran registered voters surveyed to Obama's 34 percent. Among non-veterans though, Obama holds a four point edge, with 48 percent to Romney's 44. Gallup says veterans make up 13 percent of the U.S. population.

Don't these guys know Mr. Obama killed OBL?

Another bad sign is the downbeat reporting on Campaign Barry this month.

READY, FIRE, AIM
Team Obama’s Reputation Is Vastly Overrated
May 25, 2012 (WFB)

NOT ARROGANT ANY MORE
Confidence Gives Way To Resignation.
"It’s Going To Be Really Tough — A 2004 Race."
May 24, 2012 (BF)

OBAMA STUMBLES OUT OF THE GATE

May 25, 2012 (Politico) - Nothing inspires Democrats like the Barack Obama swagger — the supreme self-confidence on stage, the self-certainty in private. So nothing inspires more angst than when that same Obama stumbles, as he has leaving the gate in 2012.

That’s the unmistakable reality for Democrats since Obama officially launched his reelection campaign three weeks ago. Obama, not Mitt Romney, is the one with the muddled message — and the one who often comes across as baldly political. Obama, not Romney, is the one facing blowback from his own party on the central issue of the campaign so far — Romney’s history with Bain Capital. And most remarkably, Obama, not Romney, is the one falling behind in fundraising.

To top it off, Vice President Joe Biden has looked more like a distraction this month than the potent working-class weapon Obama needs him to be.
National polls, which had shown Obama with a slight but steady lead over Romney through April, moved into a virtual tie this month — despite Romney’s clumsy conclusion to the GOP race.

Ed Morrissey at Hot Air picks up:

[Politico notes] that a bad three weeks may just end up being a bad three weeks, and that things may well smooth out for Obama after the campaign gets in motion. Of course, this campaign has been in motion for more than a year. They had prepared the Bain attack since at least last September, when Obama began pushing the Buffett Rule and started demagoguing wealth and the wealthy. This has been the longest wind-up to a pitch in recent memory, and it turned into a pratfall.

That’s why the nod to Team Obama being a "political team notorious for discipline and effectiveness" appears to be one last fantasy to which the media may be bitterly clinging.

Campaign Barry sure hopes the economy picks up. Soon. Please.

NUMBER OF HIGH-SCHOOL STUDENTS
WITH JOBS HITS 20-YEAR LOW
May 24, 2012 (TWT)

AMERICANS GREW GLOOMIER
ABOUT THE ECONOMY IN MAY
NEW YORK May 29, 2012 (AP)

Here's a glimmer of hope for Campaign Barry:

The Cook Report
FLIP A COIN
All Signs Point To A Presidential Race That Will Be Very Tight.
Neither Candidate Seems Capable Of Pulling Away.
May 24, 2012 (National Journal)

That's right. The guy with the incumbency advantage, the guy with all the money, the guy with all the coolness, the guy with all the likeability -- that guy doesn't rate better than a coin toss from one of the most astute handicappers in the business.

CHOPE.

Fail momentum. Six months out.

Posted by Damian at May 29, 2012 11:45 PM