NYC Letter: On The Fail Trail -- Little Things Add Up VIII

Day 1,233 of CHOPE
D-minus 223 Days

The Endless Bummer Edition
(Thank you Mr. Brown.)

The good news is the bad news.

Campaign Barry had another rough week. The "dry run" of its ground game in Wisconsin failed. After hyping it as a prefigurement of November, Team Barry had to scramble to walk it back as a big nothing.

It doesn't get better.

Confidence Check.

DEM STRATEGIST BOB SHRUM:
"I DON'T THINK THE PRESIDENT COULD WIN"
A REFERENDUM

June 3, 2012 (CBS News) - Is the 2012 election a referendum on President Obama, or a choice between Mr. Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney? According to Bob Shrum, a longtime Democratic consultant known for being chief strategist to John Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign, a referendum on the president would not be good for the standard bearer of his party. Mr. Shrum, Sunday on Face the Nation:

I think we ought to just face reality here. [If] you just let this be a referendum, I don't think the president could win. Because the truth of the matter is, he may have created over 4.3 million jobs, he may have saved General Motors, but the country is still not back to where it needs to be. So this needs to be a choice election. People have to have that choice, and if they have the choice, I think the president's going to be fine.

Bummer.

Before we move on, a word about Mr. Shrum's bright prospects of a "choice election". The Democrats are talking up a "choice election" because as Mr. Shrum above and Governor Rendell below make plain Mr. Obama can't win on his record, ergo the "choice" campaign. The upper echelons of party bosses, strategists, consultants, and pollsters think that if they fuzz out Mr. Obama's actual record with another load of promises to be delivered just past November 6 they can lull the electorate à la 2008 when Mr. Obama was nothing but promises because he had no record. The Democrats ran this very same "choice" campaign in 2010 and lost big. Since then Mr. Obama's record has become an even bigger liability. That the "smartest guys in the room" are pushing this losing fairy tale is a tacit admission of desperation.

Democrats huddled in comfort circles can chirp "Choice! Choice!", but in the end the "choice" will still be between a guy who by all measures didn't get the job done and the guy with a record of accomplishments.

ED RENDELL: "I'M NOT SURE" IF OBAMA IS GOING TO WIN

June 7, 2012 (RCP) - Former Governor Ed Rendell (D-PA), Thursday on CNN's John King USA:

And I have this strange habit of trying to tell the truth when you ask me a question. I'm not sure he's going to win -- he should win. He inherited the worse set of problems any president in my lifetime and he's done a good job of advancing the ball, not as far as anyone would like -- including himself.

Bummer.

DEMOCRATS JITTERY OVER
OBAMA'S SPUTTERING 2012 CAMPAIGN
Obama's Party Is Worried That The Economy
May Sink The President's Reelection And Worry
That He Has Not Reacted Strongly Enough.
By Eleanor Clift
June 8, 2012 (TDB)

Eleanor Clift! Serious bummer.

Enthusiasm Check.

'OBAMA GIRL' IS 'NOT AS EXCITED' ABOUT 2012,
WON’T ENDORSE OBAMA

June 8, 2012 (TDC) - Amber Lee Ettinger, widely known as "Obama Girl" during the 2008 presidential campaign, told The Daily Caller she is "not as excited as I was the last time, that’s for sure." The model-actress became a nationally known celebrity after starring in the viral YouTube video "Crush on Obama".

Bummer.

LIBERALS THREATEN NOT TO VOTE
IN NOVEMBER OVER DISAPPOINTMENT
WITH OBAMA
PROVIDENCE June 8, 2012 (CBSDC/AP)

Bummer.

Remember Anthony "Van" Jones? Funny. Neither does the White House.

VAN JONES: LIBERALS FEEL 'CRUSHED' BY OBAMA
PROVIDENCE June 9, 2012 (WaPo)

Bummer.

Money Check.

OBAMA'S 2008 DONORS DON'T GIVE IN 2012
Disillusionment And Hard Times.

June 3, 2012 (BF) - In 2008, more than 550,000 gave more than $200 to Barack Obama, entering their names in the longest list of individual donors ever seen in American politics. That list was a snapshot of the hope Obama inspired in a cross sections of liberals, young professionals, African-Americans, and Democrats who saw in him a generational and historic moment.

But now, as Obama struggles to keep pace with his 2008 fundraising clip, that list offers a cross-section of Democratic disappointment and alienation. According to a BuzzFeed analysis of campaign finance data, 88% of the people who gave $200 or more in 2008 — 537,806 people — have not yet given that sum this year. And this drop-off isn’t simply an artifact of timing. A full 87% of the people who gave $200 — the sum that triggers an itemized report to the Federal Elections Commission — through April of 2008, 182,078 people, had not contributed by the end of last month.

Bummer.

ROMNEY FUNDRAISING ECLIPSES OBAMA’S
By Keith Koffler

June 7, 2012 (WHD) - Mitt Romney and the Republican National Committee outraised President Obama and the Democratic National Committee by nearly $17 million in May, taking in $76.8 million compared to Obama’s $60 million.

... The news is a sure sign that for Republicans, 2008 is finally history. That is, the days when the Obama money juggernaut dwarfed Republican fundraising efforts are not going to return.

And this:

MESSINA: WE GOT BEAT BY MEAN RICH PEOPLE
By Keith Koffler

June 7, 2012 (WHD) - In an email to supporters with the subject line “We got beat,” Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina acknowledged the obvious and asked for more money. And of course, he showed all the usual graciousness of the Obama crowd.

We don’t have the special-interest and high-dollar donor advantage that Romney has. Barack Obama has you, and we are bound and determined to fight back on behalf of a country where everyone gets a fair shot and a fair shake.

... What Messina leaves out is that the Obama campaign got beat at the very same game it won in 2008. Messina wants people to think that Romney’s fundraising is somehow related to the unlimited donations given to PACs, but it’s just the same equal playing field of limited candidate and Party donations on which Obama destroyed McCain four years ago. The problem for the Obama campaign is not, in this case, that there’s more fat cats in the game than in 2008. It’s that there’s more enthusiasm on the Republican side.

Double bummer!

Economy Check.

OBAMA HOPES DIM WITH
RESULTS OF ECONOMIC MISSTEPS
Too Late To Change Course From Failed Policies
OP-ED June 5, 2012 (MarketWatch)

Bummer.

CBO PAINTS GRIM LONG-TERM DEBT PICTURE

WASHINGTON June 5, 2012 (MarketWatch) - In its 2012 long-term budget outlook, the nonpartisan CBO said that extending current tax rates and rising health-care costs would push the debt to almost 200% of gross domestic product in 2037. That is under the CBO’s scenario that maintains current policies.

Bummer.

BERNANKE: US IS FACING "FISCAL CLIFF"
The Chairman Of The Federal Reserve Says A Looming Financial Crisis
Set For The End Of The Year Is Starting To Affect Growth.

June 7, 2012 (CSM) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, in testimony Thursday before Congress, repeatedly warned about the so-called fiscal cliff — a reference to the expiration of tax cuts Dec. 31 and the imposition of automatic spending reductions Jan. 1.

By some accounts, the U.S. economy could see an unprecedented fiscal hit of as much as $720 billion if the slated changes take effect.

Bummer.

FED’S KOCHERLAKOTA SAYS JOB GROWTH
REMAINS ‘DISAPPOINTING’

MINNEAPOLIS June 07, 2012 (Bloomberg) - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said U.S employment growth remains “disappointing” and that an elevated jobless rate may persist even as the expansion continues. Mr. Kocherlakota:

The erosion in labor-market performance that we’ve seen in the United States over the past five years may be highly persistent, even under appropriate monetary policy.

... Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said yesterday slowing job growth and deteriorating financial-market conditions show the U.S. economy “remains vulnerable to setbacks” and may warrant additional monetary stimulus.

Bummer. And don't miss this self-inflicted bummer.

Polls Check.

ROMNEY NARROWS GENDER GAP

POLL June 7, 2012 (The Hill) - As recently as April, Obama led Romney by 18 percent among women voters in a USA Today/Gallup poll of 12 swing states. The huge advantage with women gave Obama an overall edge of 9 percent. ... In the same USA Today/Gallup poll from early May, the president’s lead among women was cut to 12 percent, reducing Obama’s overall swing state lead to 2.

A CNN-ORC poll released this month showed Obama’s lead among women nationally was down to 3 percent, 49 percent to 46, and equal to the president’s overall lead in that poll.

Bummer.

OBAMA, ROMNEY NECK-AND-NECK
IN MICHIGAN

POLL June 7, 2012 (CNN) - The survey from EPIC-MRA showed Romney with the backing of 46% of likely Michigan voters, compared to 45% who back Obama. The one-point margin was well within the poll's sampling error. The last EPIC poll, taken in April, showed the president leading his Republican rival 47%-43%.

Bummer.

POLLS: ROMNEY LEADS OBAMA IN OHIO
AND FLORIDA, TIED IN COLORADO
BLOG June 7, 2012 (Hot Air)

Bummer.

NEW POLL: THE SUPREME COURT
AND THE HEALTH CARE LAW

POLL June 7, 2012 (NYT) - More than two-thirds of Americans hope the Supreme Court will overturn some or all of the 2010 health care law, according to a new poll conducted by The New York Times and CBS News. Just 24 percent said they hoped the court "would keep the entire health care law in place."

... Forty-one percent of those surveyed said the court should strike down the entire law, and another 27 percent said the justices should overturn only the individual mandate.

That's like a BFD! Or something. Bummer.

Is there no cheering news, no bright star anywhere for Campaign Barry?

ASTROLOGERS SAY CELESTIAL CHARTS
FAVOR OBAMA OVER ROMNEY

NEWS ORLEANS May 29, 2012 (Yahoo/Reuters) - The votes are in and it is unanimous: Barack Obama will win re-election to the U.S. presidency in November, according to five astrologers who offered predictions at their convention on Tuesday. ... "The ingress of Saturn into Scorpio may trouble him." ... Two of the panelists participated in a similar session four years ago when the panel also gave a unanimous thumbs-up to Obama.

Yeah. [Pause.] That's as good as it gets around Obama Central.

CHOPE.

Fail momentum. Five months out.

Posted by Damian at June 10, 2012 03:45 PM