Day 163 of CHOPE

What's humbled me, as you walk out, I mean, everywhere I go, crowds spontaneously assemble. They start to cheer, whether I go to a play on Broadway or I'm going home to Wilmington, Delaware. I walk on the train. People stand up and clap. I mean, it's humbled me.

Joe "Hi-Q" Biden,
VP and crowd magnet,
spontaneously bursting into self-adulation
GOOD MORNING AMERICA
April 30, 2009 (ABC)

BIDEN FAILS TO DRAW CROWD IN ERIE

WATTSBURG, Pennsylvannia July 1, 2009 (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review) - Vice President Joe Biden visited a small town on the outskirts of Erie today to talk to rural folks about federal stimulus money that can be used to expand broadband access to the Internet for rural areas that typically have poor connections.

Apparently stimulus money and broadband are not all that interesting to the local folk here: Only around 100 or so people have showed up so far to hear Biden talk at noon at Seneca High School off Route 8 in Wattsburg.

The room looked so sparse that about 30 or so chairs were removed by volunteers to give the illusion of a full house.

The effect didn't exactly work.

Just a reminder, the greatest danger to America is the president dying in office. Keep Mr. Obama in your prayers until you vote him out.

CHOPE.

Spontaneous assembly required.

Day 162 of CHOPE

I still hold out hope it will be a V-shaped recovery. It might not be the most likely scenario but it is not as unlikely as many people think.

Christina Romer,
Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers,
CHOPE-ing against hope
INTERVIEW
June 28, 2009 (FT)

The V recovery graphs as a decline that quickly rebounds once it hits bottom. The American economy is believed to have bottomed March 6, some three months ago.

Ms. Romer here clings to the same misplaced CHOPE that misinformed her earlier forecast of the magic of stimulus spending. What is the likelihood of Ms. Romer's fabulous V recovery? [Pause.] With few major indicators showing sustained rebounds, not very likely at all.

FORGET THE V-SHAPED RECOVERY: EXPERTS
May 15, 2009 (CNBC)

V-SHAPED RECOVERY IS OVERLY OPTIMISTIC
May 18, 2009 (CNBC)

V-SHAPED RECOVERY OUTLOOK IS IN VAIN
First Pacific Advisors: The Bulk Of The Economy's
Credit Problems Are Still To Come.
June 3, 2009 (Barron's)

KRUGMAN SAYS NO SIGNS
OF ‘V-SHAPED’ ECONOMIC RECOVERY

June 5, 2009 (Bloomberg) - Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the world’s economy is showing "not a hint" of a "V-shaped" recovery marked by a swift decline and revival.

The economy is "stabilizing, not recovering," Krugman, an economics professor at Princeton University in New Jersey, said today at a conference in Dublin. Mr. Krugman:

Things are getting worse more slowly.

... Service industries in the U.S. shrank at a slower pace in May while job losses mounted, indicating that any economic recovery will be slow to develop. Mr. Krugman:

The euro zone, like the United States, I fear, could be facing kind of a lost decade.

RECOVERY REALITY CHECK: NOT SO FAST...
Don't Cheer Fewer Job Losses

NEW YORK June 5, 2009 (CNNMoney.com) - The May jobs report, which showed the lowest level of cuts since September, sent stocks slightly higher Friday on more hopes that the economy may soon be on the upswing.

... Let's put things in perspective. Employers still cut 345,000 jobs last month.

In case that didn't sink in, I'll repeat it. Employers still cut 345,000 jobs last month. That's a big number. But in some of the media's coverage of the jobs report, journalists had the unmitigated gall to say that only 345,000 jobs were lost.

Only? It is downright insulting to the average American to use such a modifier.

Yes, the job market is a lagging indicator. That means it may be the last part of the economy to recover.

But with unemployment now at a 26-year high, it's hard to imagine how there can be a robust rebound until companies actually feel comfortable to start hiring again.

US: ISM* MANUFACTURING − NO "V" SHAPED RECOVERY
July 1, 2009 (FXstreet.com)

Ms. Romer tries to wish results into being, dutifully peddling Team Barry's cheery CHOPE. We will be lucky if this recession graphs as a U, where the economy trolls along the bottom before sloping up. [Pause] Or Team Barry may just spend-and-tax us into an L recovery with the bottom lingering for years.

CHOPE.

Cheery forecasts. Dreary results.

------------------------------------
* Institute for Supply Management

Day 161 of CHOPE

Q: When should we judge the stimulus package -- whether it's working or not?

Well, I think we should judge it, ah, we should begin to judge it now, ah...

Q: To judge it now?

Absolutely!

Robert Gibbs,
WH spokesperson, officially retiring the GWB economy
WASHINGTON June 29, 2009 (MSNBC/YouTube)

Finally! It's here. The Obama economy. [We briefly jubilate.] OK. Let's start judging.

JUNE FEDERAL RECEIPTS: THE DIVE CONTINUES,
AS DOES MEDIA NEAR SILENCE

June 30, 2009 (bizzyblog.com) - As we near the end of June, which is supposed to be one of the four biggest months for federal tax collections (January, April, and September are the others), it is clear that the serious receipts shortfalls are not only continuing, but have caused the March 20 projections of the administration and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) outdated.

Federal tax receipts were down 34% this April compared to a year ago.

[A]s we approach the end of the month, June 2009 receipts from economic activity are down 25% from last year. It’s clear from last year’s results that it would be unreasonable to expect a high level of receipts from other than withholdings in the final two days of this year.

Detailed analysis worth the full read.

GLOOMY U.S. CONSUMERS CLIP HOUSING RECOVERY HOPES

WASHINGTON June 30, 2009 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence took an unexpectedly steep slide in June, figures released on Tuesday showed, suggesting the 18-month-long recession had yet to loosen its grip on the economy.

... Major stock market indexes fell after the Conference Board's consumer confidence index showed households felt gloomier about their current situation and less optimistic about what the coming months might bring.

HOUSING IN PERIL AS OBAMA FAILS TO GET BREAKTHROUGH

June 29, 2009 (Bloomberg) - Four months after President Barack Obama pledged $275 billion to shore up home sales, the engine that powered every U.S. recovery since 1960 is stalled. Bankers’ reluctance to finance buyers who won’t live in properties is one barrier to a turnaround. Stricter qualifying rules and a rise in the cost of residential loans to 5.42 percent have impeded new mortgage lending, which is at a 13-year low. An inventory of 2.1 million unoccupied houses on the market, created by the fastest foreclosure pace in history, may be a drag on a revival.

The $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit in the U.S. economic stimulus package and a government program to subsidize some mortgage payments have had little effect, according to Eric Belsky, executive director of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

... Existing U.S. home sales in May rose 2.4 percent to an annual rate of 4.77 million, lower than forecast, and the median price was down 16.8 percent from the same month in 2008, according to the Chicago-based National Realtors Association.

There’s little chance the turnover will increase enough this year to end the housing recession, said Andres Carbacho- Burgos, an economist with Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Housing typically leads American recoveries.

RECORD UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN EIGHT STATES

June 19, 2009 (calculatedriskblog.com) - From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Michigan again reported the highest jobless rate, 14.1 percent in May. The states with the next highest rates were Oregon, 12.4 percent; Rhode Island and South Carolina, 12.1 percent each; California, 11.5 percent; Nevada, 11.3 percent; and North Carolina, 11.1 percent. Six additional states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rates of at least 10.0 percent. The California, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, and South Carolina rates were the highest on record for those states. Florida, at 10.2 percent, and Georgia, at 9.7 percent, also posted series highs.

Many news media skip the lack of improvement and dress up Mr. Obama's economy with upbeat headlines declaring declines less than the running forecasts. But, gentle skimmer, the running forecasts long ago surpassed the working forecasts used to sell the stimulus.

A FORECAST WITH HOPE BUILT IN

WASHINGTON June 30, 2009 (NYT) - In the weeks just before President Obama took office, his economic advisers made a mistake. They got a little carried away with hope.

To make the case for a big stimulus package, they released their economic forecast for the next few years. Without the stimulus, they saw the unemployment rate — then 7.2 percent — rising above 8 percent in 2009 and peaking at 9 percent next year. With the stimulus, the advisers said, unemployment would probably peak at 8 percent late this year.

We now know that this forecast was terribly optimistic. The jobless rate has already reached 9.4 percent. On Thursday, the Labor Department will announce the latest number, for June, and forecasters are expecting it to rise further. In concrete terms, the difference between the situation that the Obama advisers predicted and the one that has come to pass is about 2.5 million jobs.

... There are two possible explanations that the administration was so wrong. ... The first explanation is that the economy has deteriorated because the stimulus package failed. Some critics say that stimulus just doesn’t work, while others argue that this particular package was too small or too badly constructed to make a difference. ... The second answer is that the economy has deteriorated in spite of the stimulus.

... It’s not fair to expect Mr. Obama’s economists to be clairvoyant. But they did make one avoidable mistake that led directly to their overoptimism. They relied on the same forecasting models that had completely failed to see the crisis coming.

Amidst all the bad news, not everyone is cheerless.

ROMER UPBEAT ON US ECONOMY

June 28, 2009 (FT) - The US economy will feel a substantial boost from the Obama administration’s emergency spending package over the next few months, says Christina Romer, a senior White House official, who has warned against tightening monetary and fiscal policy before recovery is well established.

Not to put too fine a point on this, but we expected something more from $787B of "emergency" spending than a 3-6 or 9-month downstream boost. Ms. Romer's lagging boost just happens to coincide with consensus opinion on a non-stimulus recovery. [Pause.] Damnedest thing.

Ms Romer, chairman of the US president’s council of econ­omic advisers, told the Financial Times in an interview she was “more optimistic” that the economy was close to stabilisation.

Ms Romer said stimulus spending was “going to ramp up strongly through the summer and the fall”.

Oh, good. Another "ramp-up" promise from Team Barry.

“We always knew we were not going to get all that much fiscal impact during the first five to six months. The big impact starts to hit from about now onwards,” she said.

Apparently Ms. Romer was only fooling back in January when she published the administration's stimulus expectations captured in the chart below.

FIGURE 1 (A)
[Graphic Source: Job Impact Of The American Recovery
And Reinvestment Plan, January 9, 2009]

That didn't pan out. Not only did Team Barry completely guess wrong on the stimulus, they spectacularly guessed wrong on the recession itself.

FIGURE 1 (B)

Ms. Romer:

I still hold out hope it will be a V-shaped recovery. It might not be the most likely scenario but it is not as unlikely as many people think.

For Team Barry CHOPE springs eternal.

CHOPE.

The Obama economy. Not what you were told. Not what you were sold.

Day 159 of CHOPE

Transparency promotes accountability and provides information for citizens about what their Government is doing. Information maintained by the Federal Government is a national asset. My Administration will take appropriate action, consistent with law and policy, to disclose information rapidly in forms that the public can readily find and use.

Mr. Obama,
bragging on his cellophane administration
MEMORANDUM FOR THE HEADS
OF EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES
WASHINGTON January 21, 2009 (White House)

Here is the administration you can see right through in practice.

EPA MAY HAVE SUPPRESSED REPORT
SKEPTICAL OF GLOBAL WARMING

June 26, 2009 (CBS News) - Less than two weeks before the agency formally submitted its pro-regulation recommendation to the White House, an EPA center director quashed a 98-page report* that warned against making hasty "decisions based on a scientific hypothesis that does not appear to explain most of the available data."

The EPA official, Al McGartland, said in an e-mail message to a staff researcher on March 17:

The administrator and the administration has decided to move forward... and your comments do not help the legal or policy case for this decision.

So Team Barry after soliciting an endangerment finding and not getting it, simply does without the finding.

TRANSPARENCY CONSISTENT WITH A POLICY OF PHONY SCIENCE
The Expected Findings Are The Findings To Be Found

The e-mail correspondence raises questions about political interference in what was supposed to be an independent review process** inside a federal agency -- and echoes criticisms of the EPA under the Bush administration, which was accused of suppressing a pro-climate change document.

Alan Carlin, the primary author of the 98-page EPA report, told CBSNews.com in a telephone interview on Friday that his boss, McGartland, was being pressured himself. Mr. Carlin:

It was his view that he either lost his job or he got me working on something else. That was obviously coming from higher levels.

E-mail messages released this week show that Carlin was ordered not to "have any direct communication" with anyone outside his small group at EPA on the topic of climate change, and was informed that his report would not be shared with the agency group working on the topic.

Well, the EPA's protestations notwithstanding, there seems to be little "may have" to the above headline.

The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) comments:

CEI is submitting a set of four EPA emails, dated March 12-17, 2009, which indicate that a significant internal critique of EPA’s position on Endangerment was essentially put under wraps and concealed. The study was barred from being circulated within EPA, it was never disclosed to the public, and it was not placed in the docket of this proceeding. The emails further show that the study was treated in this manner not because of any problem with its quality, but for political reasons.

From the suppressed report's preface (p.4):

We have become increasingly concerned that EPA and many other agencies and countries have paid too little attention to the science of global warming. EPA and others have tended to accept findings reached by outside groups, particularly the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] and the CCSP [Climate Change Science Program],** as being correct without a careful and critical examination of their conclusions and documentation.

… We do not maintain that we or anyone else have all the answers needed… Our conclusions do represent the best science in the sense of most closely corresponding to the available observations that we currently know of, however, and are sufficiently at variance with those of the IPCC, CCSP, and the Draft TSD [Technical Support Document] that we believe they support our increasing concern that EPA has not critically reviewed the findings by these other groups.

As discussed in these comments we believe our concerns and reservations are sufficiently important to warrant a serious review of the science by EPA before any attempt is made to reach conclusions on the subject. … The Draft TSD suggests to us that we do not yet have that capability or that we have not used what we have.

The report only argues to get the science right before proceeding. It is policy neutral where the EPA was looking for a pro-policy finding.

It is common among religions to suppress heresies. And the hierophants of global warming do not want their acolytes disturbed by actual science or critical inquiry. Global warmists cannot bear challenges to orthodoxy. [Pause.] The science be damned.

[Hat tips: NewsBusters, Gateway Pundit]

This is what transparent scientific debate refereed by a community organizer looks like.

CHOPE.

Nothing to see. Move along.

------------------------------------
* The report has the windy title, Proposed NCEE (National Center for Environmental Economics) Comments On Draft Technical Support Document For Endangerment Analysis For Greenhouse Gas Emissions Under The Clean Air Act.

** More examples of "independent review processes" under Mr. Obama here and here and here.

*** Recently reinvented as the Global Change Research Program (USGCRP).

Day 158 of CHOPE

Read my lips: no new taxes.

George H. W. Bush,
then-candidate for the presidency, making the promise
that won him his first term and lost him his second term
ACCEPTANCE SPEECH
REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION
NEW ORLEANS August 18, 1988 (presidency.ucsb.edu)

But let me perfectly clear...if your family earns less than $250,000 a year, you will not see your taxes increased a single dime.

I repeat: not one single dime.

Mr. Obama,
repeating the campaign promise
that will lose him his second term
ADDRESS TO JOINT SESSION OF CONGRESS
WASHINGTON February 24th, 2009 (White House)

CECI N'EST PAS UNE TAXE
It's A Jobs Bill! Fooled Us.
[With apologies to René Magritte]

Under my plan of a cap-and-trade system electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket. Businesses would have to retrofit their operations. That will cost money. They will pass that cost onto consumers.

Nobody, nobody in this country realizes that cap-and-trade is a tax. And it's a great big one.

John Dingell (D-MI, 15th),
chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee,
calling a tax a tax
WASHINGTON April 24, 2009 (YouTube/C-Span)

I think if you get into the way [the cap-and-trade bill] was written, it's a huge tax and there's no sense calling it anything else. I mean, it is a tax. And it's a fairly regressive tax. If we buy permits, essentially, at our utilities, that goes right into the bills of the utility customers and an awful lot of people in Iowa, in Oregon, and Utah, and places where we are, very poor people are going to pay a lot more money for electricity.

Warren Buffett,
billionaire investor and supporter of
and sometime advisor to Mr. Obama,
calling a tax a tax
NEW YORK June 24, 2009 (CNBC)

In Obamaland, if you don't call a tax a tax, it's not a tax.

PRESIDENT OBAMA ON ENERGY BILL:
"MAKE NO MISTAKE, THIS IS A JOBS BILL"

WASHINGTON June 25, 2009 (ABC News) - Standing in the Rose Garden this afternoon, President Obama called for the House of Representatives to pass the energy bill written by Reps. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., and Ed Markey, D-Mass., calling Friday's roll call a "vote of historic proportions" that would likely be close because of "misinformation that's out there that suggests there is somehow a contradiction between investing in clean energy and our economic growth."

"Make no mistake, this is a jobs bill," Mr. Obama said, arguing that the bill would "create incentives to spark a clean energy economy."

The government will collect fees for emissions permits forcing up your electric bill. [Pause.] It's a tax. [Hard pause.] And more likely it's a jobs killer.

CHOPE.

Tax rich. Energy poor. And no jobs.

Day 156 of CHOPE

He's not only a leader, but he can lead us to the right place.

Warren Buffett,
billionaire investor and supporter of
and sometime advisor* to Mr. Obama,
revealing where Mr. Obama will lead us
OMAHA August 16, 2007 (Chicago Tribune)

[Fast forward.] Here we -- and Mr. Buffett -- are.

WARREN BUFFETT TO CNBC:
U.S. ECONOMY IN "SHAMBLES",
NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY YET

June 24, 2009 (CNBC) - While the economy is a "shambles" and likely to stay that way for some time, he remains optimistic there will eventually be a recovery over a period of years.

"Over a period of years"? That's not optimism. That's running out the clock for Mr. Obama.

CNBC: The last time we sat down to talk ... you told us that you think we're in an economic war right now. How much progress do you think we've made in that war?

BUFFETT: Well, it's been pretty flat. I get figures on 70-odd businesses, a lot of them daily. Everything that I see about the economy is that we've had no bounce. The financial system was really where the crisis was last September and October, and that's been surmounted and that's enormously important. But in terms of the economy coming back, it takes a while. There were a lot of excesses to be wrung out and that process is still underway and it looks to me like it will be underway for quite a while. In the (Berkshire Hathaway) annual report I said the economy would be in a shambles this year and probably well beyond. I'm afraid that's true.

Hhmmm. This doesn't seem to be the right place at all.

Mr. Buffett the dilettante king-maker has been disabused by Mr. Buffett the professional investor.

WARREN BUFFETT: "NOBODY KNOWS"
IF GOV'T FIXES WILL WORK
January 22, 2009 (USN&WR)

VAUNTED OBAMA MESSAGE MACHINE IS OFF-KEY

WASHINGTON March 10, 2009 (Reuters) - When billionaire investor Warren Buffett says President Barack Obama's economic message is muddled and undermining public confidence, it's worth listening.

Halfway through his first 100 days in office, ace communicator Obama has struggled to find the right tone in talking about the economy, twinning bleak warnings with optimism about the future.

... Buffett, an informal Obama adviser considered a financial seer on Wall Street, told CNBC on Monday the message has to be "very, very clear as to what government will be doing." Mr. Buffett:

And I think we've had, and it's the nature of the political process somewhat, but we've had muddled messages [and this and this and this and this this and this, to link but a heptad] and the American public does not know. They feel they don't know what's going on, and their reaction then is to absolutely pull back.

CHOPE.

Led. Pwned.

------------------------------------
* Here is an example of Mr. Buffet's priceless advice. Mr. Obama:

If you talk to Warren, he'll tell you his preference is not to meddle in the economy at all—let the market work, however way it's going to work, and then just tax the heck out of people at the end and just redistribute it.

Day 153 of CHOPE

To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist. (Applause.)

Mr. Obama,
delivering applause line to those clinging to power
through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent
INAUGURAL ADDRESS
WASHINGTON January 21, 2009 (White House)

True to his word.

EXTENDING A HOT DOG TO THE CLENCHED FIST OF IRAN
Would You Like Freedom Fries With Your Dog?
[Picture source: AFP]

US SAYS HOT DOG DIPLOMACY STILL ON WITH IRAN

WASHINGTON June 22, 2009 (AFP) — The United States said Monday its invitations were still standing for Iranian diplomats to attend July 4 celebrations at US embassies despite the crackdown on opposition supporters.

President Barack Obama's administration said earlier this month it would invite Iran to US embassy barbecues for the national holiday for the first time since the two nations severed relations following the 1979 Islamic revolution. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly:

There's no thought to rescinding the invitations to Iranian diplomats.

We have made a strategic decision to engage on a number of fronts with Iran. We tried many years of isolation, and we're pursuing a different path now.

But he said it was not clear if Iranian diplomats had accepted the invitations.

Legitimacy isn't the issue. Legitimizing is the issue.

CHOPE.

This Fourth of July: American ideals out, doomed-to-fail make-nice in.

Day 150 of CHOPE

In order to save our children from a future of debt, we will also end the tax breaks for the wealthiest 2% of Americans. But let me perfectly clear, because I know you’ll hear the same old claims that rolling back these tax breaks means a massive tax increase on the American people: if your family earns less than $250,000 a year, you will not see your taxes increased a single dime.

I repeat: not one single dime.

In fact, the recovery plan provides a tax cut – that’s right, a tax cut – for 95% of working families. And these checks are on the way.

Mr. Obama,
being perfectly clear as he prepares
to cripple future generations with debt
ADDRESS TO JOINT SESSION OF CONGRESS
WASHINGTON February 24th, 2009 (White House)

Here is the backend of this recent story.

[Mr. Obama] left open the possibility he would have to raise taxes on most Americans to decrease the deficit if growth were too weak. He also indicated he might tax the most-expensive employer-provided benefits to help pay for his health-care revamp. Both would reverse pledges he made during the campaign. Mr. Obama:

If we are growing at a robust rate, then we can pay for the government that we need without having to raise taxes. If we’ve got anemic growth, if we don’t have a strategy for recovery without bubbles, which is essentially what we’ve had over the last couple of recovery cycles, then we’re going to continue to have problems.

The president has repeatedly said he would keep his presidential campaign pledge to cut taxes for 95 percent of working Americans while rolling back tax breaks for households making more than $250,000 a year.

During the campaign, Obama opposed taxing employer-provided health-care benefits, a proposal gaining traction among Senate Democrats to pay for a $1 trillion health-care plan.*

He said he preferred other means** of funding the legislation, including reducing itemized deductions for the wealthiest Americans and focusing on cutting health-care costs.

The classic Democratic approach to goverance is simply to spend. The follow-on is to increase taxes. They have been doing this for decades. This is the extent of Mr. Obama's CHOPE. Spend and tax. That's it. Beyond these Democratic remedies, Mr. Obama is out of ideas.

CHOPE.

Outsized spending. Record Unemployment. Time to tax the remaining life from the economy.

------------------------------------
* Or $4 trillion. Not to worry, it's only money.

** Here's one that doesn't get much press.

Day 149 of CHOPE

It is stupidity to hold talks without any change in US attitude.

Mehdi Kalhor,
Iranian Vice President for Media Affairs,
being candid about dreamy diplomacy
October 13, 2008 (americanthinker.com/INA)

Presto-chango!

Now, it's not productive, given the history of U.S.-Iranian relations, to be seen as meddling -- the U.S. President meddling in Iranian elections.

Mr. Obama,
not meddling with Iran
PRESS AVAILABILITY
WASHINGTON June 16, 2009 (White House)

IRAN BLAMES US FOR
'INTOLERABLE' MEDDLING
ISTANBUL June 17, 2009 (CSM)

Tea party is off. [Pause.] May as well meddle.

FIVE WAYS OBAMA COULD PROMOTE FREEDOM IN IRAN

OP-ED June 18, 2009 (WSJ) - The reform movement in Iran has clearly hit a new level, but the future is uncertain. The key issue is whether spontaneous protests crystallize into sustained dissent that involves the middle class. There are no cracks yet in the Iranian government's domestic security forces -- a common criterion for successful, bottom-up challenges to totalitarian regimes. But the Obama administration can take steps right now and in the months ahead to open a "second channel" to Iran -- this one to its people directly -- and improve the chances of real change

1. Mr. Obama should contact Mr. Mousavi to signal his interest in the situation and Mr. Mousavi's security.

2. Mr. Obama should deliver another taped message to the Iranian people. Only this time he should acknowledge the fundamental reality that the regime lacks the consent of its people to govern, which therefore necessitates a channel to the "other Iran".

   The 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine is a model. In that case the West joined Ukrainians in refusing to accept the results of a stolen election. This combined effort helped to force a final run-off vote that reflected the people's will. In Iran, this would mean not only redoing elections but also allowing a full field of candidates to run. As with Ukraine and the Soviet Union before, Mr. Obama could at least make it clear that the U.S. will separate the issues of engagement and legitimacy. Our engagement of the Soviet Union in arms-control talks did not prevent us from successfully pressing human-rights issues and seeking an alternative political structure. So it can be with Iran. Engagement without an effort to talk to the "other Iran" would not only be a travesty but tactically foolish as well.

3. The president should direct U.S. ambassadors in Europe and the Gulf to meet with local Iranian anti-regime expatriates.

4. Additional funding should be provided immediately for Radio Farda, an effective Persian-language radio, Internet and satellite property of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

5. The administration should take steps to give Iranian reformers and dissidents a level playing field with the regime in the battle of ideas. Just as providing photocopiers and fax machines helped Solidarity dissidents in communist Poland in the 1980s, today's reformers need access to the Web and other means of communication.

CHOPE.

Sweet talk. Tippy-toe. Have a nice day.

Day 148 of CHOPE

OBAMA SEES 10% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

June 17 (Bloomberg) - The jobless rate will continue to climb from its current 25-year high of 9.4 percent as employers are slow to take on new workers, the president said. “Jobs are a lagging indicator,” he said, while adding that he didn’t have “a crystal ball” to predict when unemployment will start to decline.

In January then-president-elect Obama asked Christina Romer, his designated chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and Jared Bernstein, Mr. Biden's Chief Economist and Economic Policy Adviser, to gaze into the CEA "crystal ball" and forecast unemployment. Ms. Romer and Mr. Bernstein dutifully worked up a white paper that argued under Mr. Obama's stimulus unemployment would peak at 8% then trend down to 7% in 4Q10. Without Mr. Obama's stimulus, unemployment would skyrocket to 8.8%. They even thought to provide us a chart (p.5) so there would be no mistaking Team Barry's grasp of the situation and the urgent necessity for Mr. Obama's magic stimulus.

FIGURE 1 (A)
[Graphic Source: Job Impact Of The American Recovery
And Reinvestment Plan, January 9, 2009]

Mr. Obama got his stimulus as he wanted and three months later unemployment is 9.4%, when, if you believed Team Barry, it should be under 8%. In fact unemployment is .6% higher than Team Barry predicted it would be without the stimulus.

FIGURE 1 (B)

This past Sunday on Meet The Press, Joe "Hi-Q" Biden explained. We quote the extensive exchange because we believe it is destined to become a textbook study of the thematic lie. Our comments are intercalated and bracketed in [red].

MR. GREGORY: You are in charge of monitoring the stimulus.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: That's right.

MR. GREGORY: Eight hundred billion dollar stimulus. A hundred days after it was signed, the president said 150,000 jobs had been created or saved.* Can you explain where that number comes from?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Sure. Yes, look, there's an econometric model that, that economists have been using for decades to correlate the economic circumstances of the nation with the creation of jobs. It is a model known as question, it's a model the Council of Economic Advisers have used to come up with that 150,000 jobs.

[Only last week complex job formularies were above Mr. Biden's "paygrade". Mr. Biden:

I’m sorry I’m not an economist. My background is foreign policy and the constitution. ... I’m a little above my pay grade here as I try to explain in more detail how they count spinoff effects of actual jobs created.

Not that Mr. Biden answers the question here either. He simply omits excusing himself.]

But in fact--and by the way, I think we're going to create 600,000 jobs in the next 100 days, because now this thing is beginning to roll out. We actually have let these contracts, the governors with--who have money for road contracts and so on, they're now just putting spades in the ground, just hiring people. And so I don't know anybody who's argued with the model that we've used.

[Here is an unacquainted disputant. Here is another.]

But the key here for us is not whether or not we're going to argue about how many jobs, you know, there, there are out there, it's whether or not are we in fact producing employment for people? And it's undeniable.

[In fact there is no documentation for Mr. Biden's jobs number. It is disingenuous to say you won't argue "how many jobs" because "producing employment" is the key indicator. Especially since Team Barry -- and Mr. Biden in his next breath -- continues to brag on its 150,000 jobs "saved"* or created. What is undeniable is that 2,198, 000 jobs have been lost since February, at least 1,547 of which since enacting Mr. Obama's stimulus.]

MR. GREGORY: But--well, but that's an important point. You say people aren't arguing about that; in fact, they are. I mean, you're suggesting that this is an accepted model.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Well, no, I...

MR. GREGORY: Your own economic adviser said this on Tuesday: "[Jared] Bernstein, Biden's economic adviser, said in an interview that the president's citation of [saving or creating] 150,000 [jobs] is `an estimate' based partly on what the economy would look like in the absence of the stimulus package. But Bernstein said he could not break down how many of those jobs were created vs. saved.* `That's a division we're not able to make at a level of accuracy we're comfortable with.' he said." And now you're talking about another 600,000 jobs. Should America just accept that level of progress?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Look--yeah. No, no, they shouldn't. Look, whether this is, whether this was 147,000 jobs or 158,000 jobs is not the relevant point. Look, let me put it this way. Prior to us taking office, the job loss for the month was over 700,000 jobs. It's been over 600,000. Since we've taken office the job loss has dropped now to 343,000 jobs; below other people's estimates, below the consensus estimate. Can I claim credit that all of that's due, due to the recovery package? No. But it clearly has had an impact.

[Mr. Biden is confused, uninformed, and wrong all at once. Prior to Team Barry taking office between the start of the recession in December 2007 and January 2009, the largest monthly decline in nonfarm payroll -- the 343,000 (sic, 345,000) number Mr. Biden references -- was 598,000 in December 2008. The only months the job loss number was over 600,000 were February and March of this year -- after the stimulus was in force.

Mr. Biden here compares apples and oranges, the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey (CES), which calculates the lost or created (not "saved"*) jobs number (scil., nonfarm payroll), with the BLS Current Population Survey (CPS), which calculates the generally larger unemployed number. An explanation can be found here. The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 in May, which is an increase over the two months prior, further banjaxing Mr. Biden's banjaxed claims]

MR. GREGORY: But the point of the stimulus was it would stop the unemployment picture from getting worse, right? Wasn't that the claim?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: And it has.

MR. GREGORY: It has? Well, here...

VICE PRES. BIDEN: It's not getting worse.

[Here is Mr. Biden earlier this month:

And let me be very clear: A lower job rate loss is not our goal. "Less bad" is not how we're going to measure success -- we're going to measure success here in the White House. We will not be satisfied until we're adding jobs on a monthly basis; providing working Americans with a stable job, dependable income; ensuring that everyone who wants to make their way into the middle class has a shot to get into the middle class.]

MR. GREGORY: But here's the reality, and that is...

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Relative.

MR. GREGORY: ...that when this report was issued by your economic adviser...

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Yes.

MR. GREGORY: ...and Dr. Romer from the White House, the assertion was that you could keep unemployment at 8 percent and then it would go down after that. In fact, it's now at 9.4 percent. Was it oversold?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: No, look. No. What we did is we took the econometric models that were used by businesses as well as academics. At the time no one realized how bad the economy was. The projections, in fact, turned out to be worse. But it was--we, we, we took the mainstream model as to what we thought and everyone else thought the unemployment rate would be. But the fact of the matter is the--I don't think anyone can dispute the unemployment rate would be considerably higher, but for--at least 150,000 jobs higher, but for this economic stimulus package.

[Surprise! Mr. Biden is in possession of the very crystal ball that Mr. Obama lacks. Alas, his puny 150,000 saved* or created jobs "in a total employment pool of 140,000,000 is barely more than 0.1%, which is the relative sampling error of the employment survey."

MR. GREGORY: Right. But the, but this package was sold on the premise that it would in fact keep unemployment at 8 percent. It's exceeded that...

VICE PRES. BIDEN: No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

MR. GREGORY: ...with the recovery plan.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: It wasn't sold on that. It was sold on it would create...

MR. GREGORY: That's what the report said, Mr. Vice President.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: ...or--no, it said it would--what would happen was it would save or create jobs. It's doing that. It is doing that. Everyone guessed wrong, at the time the estimate was made, about what the state of the economy was at the moment this was passed. Now, we're going to recalibrate this in terms of what we've inherited, what in fact is going on out there. But look, the bottom line is that jobs are being created that would not have been there before. All you've got to do is go into New York City. There's 14,000 teachers working who got their, got their notices. Go with me up to New Flyer bus company up in Minnesota, come--I mean, there--it's--throughout the country, it's creating jobs.

[Not everyone guessed wrong. Everyone guessing wrong is hardly the issue. That Team Barry guessed wrong is the issue.]

MR. GREGORY: Regardless, though, the economy is worse off with or without this stimulus plan that this administration expected.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: The economy was worse off when we made the assessment than anyone thought it was. The economy is actually getting better, things are getting better. We have a long, long way to go. But now you see what's happening. We're having a, a situation where housing is starting to improve, where lending is starting to come forward, where we have a situation where we've gained some control of the automobile companies who otherwise would have had to been liquidated in terms of them staying in business and having a prospect of growing. So I think if you ask out there, look--and look at what the, you know, these measures of confidence in the economy are. Everyone feels mildly better about where the economy's going.

MR. GREGORY: One more point about the stimulus, and that is you said when this thing was being debated, most of it would get out the door right away, $800 billion. And yet just this week there were reports about the fact that only 6 percent of that money has been spent so far.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: No, I don't know who said...

MR. GREGORY: Where are the projects?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: ...we're going to get $800 billion out the door in 100 days.

[Here is Mr. Obama, January 28, 2009:

Most of the money we're investing as part of this plan will get out the door immediately and go directly to job-creation, generating or saving three to four million new jobs.]

We have over 2,000 projects approved. We have now a situation where you have people--you're going to see in the next--and let me--this is an important point. You let a contractor build a highway. It's $42 million, like I was just--did one in the state of Kansas, $42 million dollars. Now what's happened? The governor, the governor gets that approval. What's he doing? Puts it out to bid, competitive bid. It took somewhere between a month and three months to get those bids back. Now the spades are in the ground. Now it's working. That's why we're confidently going to predict that we will increase fourfold what went--and now $150 billion--$140 billion has been obligated now. But obligation requires, then, the states to go forward and get the contracting done according to the rules that they have within the state for competitive bidding.

CHOPE.

No crystal ball. No jobs. Relative.

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* There is no metric for "saved" jobs (and this).